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Seed Consultants Marketwatch Evening Comments with Gary Wilhelmi 10/9/2012

Financial
Dow closes off 110
NASDAQ 47 points
S&P down 10 points
DAX .8% lower
Crude down $.25 at $92.25 in a range from 489.29 to $92.29
Spec swapping in crude
Gold quietly off $9 at $1764
Dollar index up 45
IMF set the tone lowering growth to 3.3% from 3.6% and stating that there is a high risk of a deeper slump
Earnings begin with Alcoa Tuesday afternoon
Earnings tone expected to be weak
PPI later this week

Livestock
Light volume in cattle and hogs
Cash cattle offers at $125-126
Boxed beef firm and show lists smaller
Wednesday features may favor chicken
Pork cutout steady near the seasons high
Pork production rising so watch slaughter 535.000 Monday
Packer demand improved

Grain and soybeans
Harvest as expected at 69% corn and 58% soybeans
Winter wheat plantings at 57% with 23% emergence as it was last year
Mild position balancing day on light volume
Export inspections small in grains and double need to level in soybeans
Crop report expected to show moderate shaving of totals in corn and soybeans
October is usually a fine tuning month and finishing weather has been outstanding
Australian dryness cuts wheat estimate to 20-22 MT from 26
Russia reaffirms no export restrictions of wheat
Watch global wheat balance sheet Thursday
China injects money into system to stimulate domestic market, while maintaining soybean imports
Brazilian corn 73.7 MT and soybeans 83 MT
Australia lessens call El Nino forecast meaning dryness in the north

1:43 update

Dow off 80, NASDAQ down 40
Crude up $2.87 on Turkey attack on Syria
Dollar climbs up 47
Gold slips $9 to $1764
Corn inspections 17m vs. 24 m needed to hit target, beans 46m vs. 21 and wheat 14 m vs. 25 m
Brazilian corn at sharp discount to US with production 73.2 MT up from 72.6 MT
Brazilian beans record of 83 MT possible
Aussie wheat slips to 20-22 MT from 25 MT on dryness
October cattle deliveries light at 24 contracts and Dec up $.60 and cash call higher
Dec hogs approach high at $77.25
Hog production rising so watch it

12:03 update

Dow off 91
S&P down n1%
NASDAQ down 44 as Apple falls below $630 support on slow IPAD sales
IMF sees high risk of deepening slump
Dollar up 41
DAX down.9%
Spain off 1.8%

10:42 update

Dow off 10
DAX down .3%
Crude oil yup $1.01 at $90.34
Dollar up 25 at 79.79
Cattle supplies tightening Boxed beef up $.58
Pork packer demand firm
Pork reaching toward season’s high
General feeling is for lower corn and soybean crops and carryovers
Record Brazilian soybean plantings and an 83 MT crop
China auctions 400,000 tons of beans in effort to stabilize domestic market
Chinese central bank injects money to stimulate sagging economy
Australian El Nino less likely and that means dryness in their north
Russia again states opposition to export limits
Watch global wheat balance sheet
Mild hand battered corn and soybean churning

10:14 update

Mild spec position balancing ahead of report
Corn +5, beans +6 and wheat +11
Dow off 20
Cattle up $.60 at $127 with resistance at $128
Hogs off $.10 at $76.75 in a $72-78 range
Europe mostly show and no go, regarding Merkel Greek visit

 

Financial
Steady stocks call
IMF cuts global growth rate to 3.3% from 3.6%
Japan shaky
General Asian slow down
PPI late week
Earnings begin with Alcoa today and soft pattern is expected
Crude $89.98 up $.65 as Turkey attacks Syria
Merkel in Greece is met by the usual demonstrators
Gold up $4 at $1777
Dollar index 79.69 up 15 and just churning

Livestock
Cash cattle $126-127 on higher boxes and reduced show lists
Cattle and hog slaughter on par
Pork cutout steady on carcass, hams and bellies with loin’s up $.19
Chicken likely to lead features tomorrow

Grain and soybeans
Corn harvest about 70% complete and soybeans 60%
Double crop soybeans bitten by frost in parts of Indiana
Corn S/D expected little changed
Corn and soybeans crops may be a little larger Thursday AM
Markets come into report a little short in spec computer positions
Global economic concerns pressure commodities
Grain exports light but soybeans good on lower prices
S American soybeans in good shape

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