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USDA Report Raises Corn/Wheat Exports, Boosts Price Outlook

USDA has lowered ending stocks estimates by 150-million bushels on increased export estimates for the record 2013 corn crop. The change resulted in an upward revision to the average farm price by 10-cents per bushel on both ends of the spectrum. National Corn Growers Association President Martin Barbre says it’s clear America’s farmers have the ability to produce an abundance to meet all needs. He says it’s imperative to maximize markets for this essential national resource. By the numbers – NCGA points out that average yield estimates for the crop are 158.8-bushels per acre – while harvest area estimates are 87.7-million acres. The resulting yield broke previous records with 13.9-billion bushels of U.S. corn produced in 2013. Projected corn exports were raised 150-million bushels from the previous month to a new total of 1.6-billion bushels in 2013. At the same time – projected ending stocks declined by the same amount. The season-average farm price was raised slightly to $4.50 per bushel – still sharply down from the record $6.70 to $7.10 the prior year.

 

WASDE at a Glance

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was released Monday. Here are some of the highlights.

 

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 50-million bushels lower as higher expected food use and exports more than offset an increase in projected imports. Imports are raised 10-million bushels. Projected food use is increased 10-million bushels based. Food use increases are projected for Hard Red Winter and HRS wheat. Exports are projected 50-million bushels higher – with exports projected higher for all classes except Durum. The season-average farm price for all wheat is narrowed five-cents on both ends of the projected range to $6.65 to $6.95 per bushel.

 

Global 2013-14 wheat supplies are lowered 1.1-million tons. Foreign wheat exports for 2013-14 are lowered. Global wheat ending stocks are projected 1.7-million tons lower.

 

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2013-14 are expected lower with a 150-million bushel increase projected for corn exports. Global trade data and strong export sales support this month’s outlook for increased world corn imports. Reduced foreign export prospects also lower competition for U.S. corn in the world market. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected 150-million bushels lower with the export increase. The season-average farm price for corn is raised 10-cents on both ends of the projected range to $4.20 to $4.80 per bushel. Season-average farm prices for the other feed grains are also projected slightly higher.

 

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-14 are projected 2.1-million tons higher with higher foreign beginning stocks and production. Coarse grain production for 2013-14 is up 0.8-million tons as small increases in sorghum, barley, oats and millet production more than offset a reduction for corn. Global 2013-14 coarse grain consumption is raised five-million tons. Global corn imports for 2013-14 are raised 3.2-million tons. Global barley imports are also raised. Global corn ending stocks are projected 2.9-million tons lower. At the projected 157.3-million tons – world ending stocks remain at a 13-year high.

RICE: Slight revisions are made to the U.S. all rice and rice-by-class 2013-14 supply and use balance sheets. All rice domestic and residual use is unchanged at 120-million cwt – however – long-grain domestic use is raised one-million to 89-million and combined medium and short-grain domestic use is lowered one-million to 31-million. The all rice export forecast is raised one-million cwt to 100-million with combined medium- and short-grain exports raised one-million to 33-million and long-grain rice exports unchanged at 67-million. Rough rice exports are increased 36-million – and brown and milled rice exports are unchanged at 64-million (rough-equivalent basis). The increase in the export forecast is due to higher-than-expected exports of medium-grain rice to Turkey as reported in the U.S. Export Sales report. All rice ending stocks are lowered one- million cwt to 27.3-million – with long-grain stocks down 16.3-million and combined medium-and short-grain stocks unchanged at 8.7-million. The 2013-14 average milling yield is increased 0.75-percentage points to 71-percent. This is the highest milling yield achieved since 2009-10 and is a full percentage point higher than last year. The 2013-14 long-grain season-average price range is narrowed to $15.10 to $15.70 per cwt – up 30-cents on the low end of the range and lowered 10-cents on the high end. The midpoint of the range is raised 10-cents from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain season-average price range is narrowed to $17.20 to $17.80 per cwt – up 90-cents on the low end of the range and up 50-cents on the high end. The midpoint of the range is raised 70-cents from last month. The all rice season-average price range is narrowed to $15.70 to $16.30 per cwt – up 40-cents on the low end of the range and unchanged on the high end. The midpoint of the range is raised 20-cents from last month. The reduced prospects for 2014-15 medium-grain production in the Sacramento Valley of California due to drought and reduced irrigation supplies have significantly raised medium-grain prices in California beginning in January. Additionally – export demand for medium-grain rice is up nearly 12-percent from last year.

 

Global 2013-14 rice supply and use projections are little changed from last month. Global 2013-14 rice production is forecast at a record 471.5-million tons up 0.4-million from last month. Global consumption and trade are up slightly from last month. World ending stocks are lowered marginally from a month ago to 105-million tons.

 

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supplies are increased five-million bushels to 3.46-billion on higher projected imports. Soybean exports for 2013-14 are projected at 1.51-billion bushels – up 15-million from last month – reflecting the record pace of shipments and sales through January. Higher U.S. soybean meal exports are offset by reduced domestic use – leaving soybean crush unchanged at 1.7-billion bushels. Residual use is reduced 10-million bushels this month. At 12-million bushels – projected residual use remains above the exceptionally low level of the past 2 marketing years. Projected soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 150-million bushels. The 2013-14 season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.95 to $13.45 – up 20-cents on both ends. The soybean meal price is projected at $425 to $465 per short ton – up 10-dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price projection is lowered 1.5-cents at the midpoint with the range narrowed to 34.5 to 37.5 cents per pound.

 

Global oilseed production for 2013-14 is projected at 506-million tons – up slightly from last month. Global soybean production is raised 0.9-million tons to a record 287.7-million. Global sunflower seed production is projected at 43.3-million tons – down 0.4-million. Global oilseed stocks are projected higher.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2013-14 is decreased 56-thousand short tons, raw value (STRV), from last month with a three-thousand STRV decline in beginning stocks and a 53-thousand STRV drop in sugar from sugarcane production in Florida. Projected use is unchanged – leaving ending stocks at 14.91-percent of use – down from 15.37-percent in December.

 

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2014 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production. For beef – relatively large cattle placements in the fourth quarter of 2013 are expected to carry through into the first half of 2014 – which will result in higher slaughter in 2014. Cow slaughter is also expected to remain relatively strong during the first half of 2014 with favorable cull cow prices. Pork production is lowered as reports indicate that Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) continues to spread. Broiler production is reduced on slower growth in slaughter. Turkey production is reduced as recent eggs-set and poultry placements remain below a year earlier. Egg production is unchanged. Estimates of 2013 meat and egg production are adjusted to reflect data for December.

Beef import and export forecasts for 2014 are unchanged from last month. Pork exports are lowered as tight supplies and high prices reduce competitiveness. The broiler export forecast is lowered as weaker-than-expected December exports and recent weakness in leg quarter prices may reflect reduced demand. Turkey exports are unchanged. The egg export forecast is raised. Meat and egg trade estimates for 2013 are updated based on data for December. Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month – reflecting tight supplies and recent price strength for fed cattle. The hog price forecast is raised on reduced supplies of market hogs and strong demand. Broiler, turkey and egg prices are raised on expected demand strength and reduced supplies of competing meats in 2014.

 

The milk production forecast for 2014 is raised from last month on expected higher cow numbers in the second half of the year. USDA’s Cattle report estimated dairy replacement heifers expected to calve during 2014 were up about two-percent from a year ago – while the number of milk cows was fractionally below a year ago. Strong returns resulting from higher milk prices and moderate feed costs are expected to boost expansion later in the year. Milk per cow is unchanged. Fat-basis exports for 2014 are raised on increased sales of butter and cheese. Skim-solids exports are lowered mostly on reduced exports of lactose. Fat and skim solid imports are unchanged. For 2013 – supply and use estimates for 2013 are updated based on data for December.

 

Product price forecasts for cheese, butter and whey are higher – supported by strong demand and price strength to date. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) is lower for 2014 on expectations of competition from other exporters in second-half 2014. The Class III price is raised on higher cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price is down as lower NDM more than offsets greater butter. The all milk price is forecast at $20.85-21.55 per cwt.

 

COTTON: The U.S. cotton estimates for 2013-14 are unchanged – with ending stocks projected at three-million bales. The marketing-year average price is projected in a narrower range of 74-78 cents per pound – with the midpoint of 76-cents raised from 74.5-cents last month. The 2013-14 world cotton supply and demand estimates include lower production and ending stocks. Global consumption is unchanged this month. Offsetting export adjustments result in total trade being virtually unchanged. World stocks are lowered to 96.5-million bales.

 

Source: NAFB News Service

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