Gary Wilhelmi 5/3/2012 PM Comment


As the grain and soybean markets were closing the Industrials were off 89 points and crude down $2.50 with gold $20 lower.  Dow closed down 61 points

The ISM service sector index dropped to 53.5 from 56 and that was the prime fundamental driver

169,000 new jobs are expected in Friday mornings employment report with the rate unchanged at 8.2%

Europe remains on the edge of economic ruin

DAX was off just .2%

ECB sticking with interest rates as they are

Stay tuned the skeletons are threatening to get out of the closet again



Short covering took cattle up limit but hogs slipped back to a 4.67 gain at the close

Small cash trade thus far at $120

Boxed beef up just $.20

Wal Mart, the largest food retailer, may feature choice beef this summer

Pork cutout higher but hogs struggled late

Beef exports up 4.5% over a year ago



Grain and soybeans

Good growing weather

The thought that China may be covered for now regarding soybean needs

Outside market weakness

These three factors pressured the beans

Kansas wheat in great shape

Spring wheat is over three-quarters planted

Rain possible in dry areas of Ukraine and Russia

Weekly exports large as expected in beans and corn but wheat was just neutral

Friday morning look first to the European markets and then the US jobs report.

1:53  update


Dow off 63

Crude down $2.50

Gold down $20

Dollar little changed

Good weather, thoughts that China may be covered in beans for now and outside market weakness press beans

Cattle and hogs rally on short covering off the lows

Wal-Mart to offer choice beef cuts this summer



10:10  update


Chinaadds 232,000 tons of new crop beans to their shopping list

Corn sales large but as expected and wheat neutral

Short covering due in livestock off lows

Packers hold cattle bids steady at $120

Cash hogs lower call

May hogs fall to a discount to cash confirming weakness?


Quiet open—Dow up just 5 points

169,000 new jobs expected tomorrow with the rate steady at 8.2%

Chinese PMI recedes and US coming out

Euro zone PMI was weak

ECB does not alter interest rates

Crude oil off $.27, gold down $14 and dollar index steady at 79.14

Japan on holiday



Light cattle trade at $120 inKansasand some $120 bids passed elsewhere

Strong cattle basis

Boxed beef up $.71 choice and steady on select

Pork cutout up $.69 with loin’s up $.89 and hams $2.51 higher

New lows yesterday

Beef exports 16,800 up 9%


Grain and soybeans

Kansas wheat in good shape but needs rain

Choppy trading week

Hot test of week inMidwestwith TS and cooler in 60’s next week—Dandy

Higher margin rates for CME members may induce some more liquidation

Rain into Ukraine and Russia is welcome

Weekly export sales:  256,000 wheat and 454,000 new crop

Corn large again 1.3 MT of old crop and 2.1 MT of new with china buying 214 old and 172 new with most going to unknowns always thought to beChina

598,000 tons of beans with 117,000 toChinaand 1.1 MT of new cropChinataking 675,000

More China confirmations?

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