Seed Consultants Market Update 7/6/12 12:25pm ET with Gary Wilhemi

Euro falls to 1.2377
Dow off 189
Crude down a couple of dollars
House bill would keep grain subsidies, but slash food stamps for the poor.
This is all still in the haggling stage polluted by political rhetoric.

10:30am ET

Weekly exports poor in corn at just 134,000 12/13, good beans with 1.4 MT of 12/13 and wheat in range at 418,000
French sift wheat 36 MT up from 34.4 MT
Cash cattle guess $117-118
Heat cuts weights of cattle and hogs
August hogs at 48 discount to cash at $101
Beef exports 19,900 up 8% on the week and 18% over month long average
Dow off 145 points

10:00am ET

Troubled financials off 119 Dow, minus 1.2% DAX, Spain down 2.6%, Italy 1.7% lower, crude drops $2.74 to $84.48 and gold $17 lower at $1587
S&P 500 at 1356 is off 11 and just up from 1350 support
Profit taking in grains and short covering in meats

Market Preview

Another punk jobs report with just 80,000 new positions versus 100,000 expected and some saw up to 160,000
Unemployment held steady at 8.2%
10 year bonds ease to 1.58% and stocks also called lower
European markets no better posting small setbacks
Multiple clunkers of jobs reports may induce the Fed to attempt another easing but none have been effective
Dollar pushes a bit higher closing in on its year high at 83.54
IMF warns US leadership to take steps to avoid the fiscal cliff at the first of the year as tax cuts expire and debt deepens
Beware there is a lot of air under the Dow up at 12,896

No trade last week in cattle but show lists remain small
$116 last trade
Boxed beef at $193 choice needs to firm to support cash
Some short covering possible in meats as grains and soybeans fall on profit taking
Pork cutout looking toppy off another $.96 with Loins gain down $5, rib’s $1.96 lower and hams restocking up $1.96
Kills distorted by short week but still plenty of hogs
Sputtering economy and searing heat curb meat demand

Grain and soybeans
Profit taking pulls markets lower by 15 cents in corn and beans and 25 in wheat
Corn rating at 46% good to excellent is the lowest since 1988
76% of agricultural land is in a drought
Poor jobs report takes more of a bite out of consumer spending
Heat to abate but not much and little rainfall
Solar conditions look similar to the 1930’s
This is a dangerous economic threat
S American crops doing well and the world will need them
Rationing will be accomplished by reduced feed consumption, decreased ethanol production and exports limited by the strong dollar

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