Seed Consultants Market Watch 12:31 update with Gary Wilhelmi 11/19/2012

12:31 update

Dollar, off 41 points, accelerates to the down side, and is a weak commentary
Cumulative exports 14% corn versus 20% five year average, soybeans 45% vs. 26% and wheat 36% vs. 48%
Asian con demand due to slow Brazilian shipments
Crude oil soars $3.55 to $89 as Mid East conflict threatens to spread
Egypt is a weak peace broker dominated by Muslim brotherhood, as is Turkey

12:11 update

Dow up 162
Crude oil $3.55 higher at $89
Turkey brands Israel a terrorist nation
Average US credit card debt rises in 3Q
US companies cut investments the most sharply in four years
Dec hogs hanging near $82 or close to the high
Hedge funds reduce commodity market bets for sixth week or he largest pull back in four years
Grains and oilseeds on higher glide plain

10:44 update

Dow up 156 on fiscal hopes
Home sales up 2.1%
Real estate index at six year high
Cattle statistics static
Pork shows signs of improvement and Dec hog futures near their high
Ukraine sells 900,000 MT of wheat in first half of November, but 12-1 export cutoff still foreseen
20,000 tons of soy oil to unknown, likely China

Hopeful talk regarding a fiscal consensus firms equities, but that what we have heard from Europe for months and here at home as well.
Goldman sees another 8% decline by years end, in the S&P, on top of the 7% fall since September.
If optimism on fiscal cliff agreement flounders, then that becomes a realistic risk
Existing home sales and NAHB real estate index will be out today
Crude oil jumps $2.63 to $88.08 on continued Israeli- Gaza confrontation
Israel may be willing to talk cease fire if they are confident that opposition missile capabilities have been crippled, but there are so many threats across the region
Lowes forecasts 76% earnings boost
Gold up $17 at $1730
Dollar off 23 at 81.04
DAX up .5% as is Spanish index
Dow up 137 points to 12,725 with next resistance near 13,000

Cash cattle trade at $125 north and $126 down south
Full week next week so watch pricing
COF 95% total, 87% placements and 103% marketing’s all about as expected
To build cattle numbers the plains need rains and dry pattern is quite stubborn
Pork cutout up $.93 with loin’s up $2.45, hams $3.07 higher and bellies off $2.37
Financial market supportive this morning

Grain and soybeans
Dec corn $7.32 up 5 at old line, Jan beans have been back over $14.00 and last at $13.98 with Dec wheat following up 6 at $8.44
China will temporarily halt state purchases to build stocks and improve margins
EPA maintains position on ethanol denying waiver on renewable fuel
Slow Brazilian corn shipping shifts some demand to US (1.5 MT) into Asia
India’s wheat is cheaper giving them the current edge
China cancels 600,000 tons of US beans
Brazil sees 82 MT of beans and Argentina 55 MT
Palm oil is at its high
Dollar flopping back forth, not inspiring exports
If Dow goes over 13,000 it would assist in grain and soybean values, but has just been vacillating

Recommended Posts