Seed Consultants 3/20/2013 Market Closing with Gary Wilhelmi


Dow hits new high then backs up to close at 14,511 up 56
S&P 1559 up 12 close to the high as was NADAQ up 25 at 3254
Fed makes no changes and sees a slow growth period ahead
Russia is closing in on Cyprus with an eye on their resources and maybe the establishment of a naval base.
I spent a few years studying Russian history and they don’t changes their ways
WTI crude up $ .80
Gold off $6
Dollar down 27 at 82.83
Fed Ex falls 7% after weak international earnings

Short covering in April cattle up $ .87 and April hogs $.35 higher
Boxed beef has raised $10 in the last few weeks while cash cattle have lost $3
Premium of futures to cash is a drag on hogs
Iowa-Minnesota hog’s weights are about steady at 277 #

Grain and soybeans
Wheat and beans close $ .14 higher and nearby corn up $ .4
Export Sales Thursday: last week wheat was near 1 MT, while corn remained weak and soybeans slipped
China cancelled 10-12 MT of Brazilian soybean purchases but transference to US products cannot be assumed
Gulf bean just are just steady and that is a warming sign
Brazilian beans are cheaper and the crop will get shipped
Cold and dry out 6-10 days in the HRW country
Another storm is brewing in the meantime so let’s see where it goes
Reports next week in plantings and stocks with corn acres guessed at 97 m and soybeans 78
In the stocks 5 b corn and 940 m beans as of 3-1

10:32 update

April cattle off $.47 and hogs down $ .50 at new lows
Hog futures premium to cash adds pressure
May corn off $.1 and wheat up $.7
Gulf soybeans steady at 65 cents over the May as is corn at 3 lower
Less expensive Brazilian beans weigh on basis

10:14 update

Fed has been main driver in stock market advance with policy statement at 1 PM CDT
Dow up 77 at 14,533 with high at 14,544
Light volume in Ag markets
Meats steady and grains a shade better

Market Opening

Cypriot parliament rejects bail out and Russian are lurking
Russian nationals have large amounts of capital in Cyprus and also have interest in their uncertain fuel resources
A major Russian oil company also has involvement in Mozambique oil, so watch them as they have money and ambition
Fed Ex earnings fall short of target due to international softness
Fed policy statement at 1 PM expected to be unchanged, but watch for hints of winding down of asset purchases
WTI $92.95 up $ .79
Brent crude $108.40 up $ .95
Gold $1607 down $4
Dollar index 82.78 off 20
More talk of Chinese economic vulnerability

Light cattle trade at $125 off $2
Boxed beef down $1.66 on choice but up $10 versus a week ago as cash has fallen $3
Cash breakeven is around $140
Pork cutout on 75 loads, carcass down $1.14, loins $4.80 lower and hams off $.40
Early Easter ham shank at $.78 and whole hams at $.98 are offered along with $6.99 salmon fillets, $7.99 choice standing rib
Support under the liquidating cattle market is at $122
Hogs at their low

Grain and soybeans
Old crop new crop spreads keys to reading markets ahead of next weeks report
Acres 97 m corn and 78 m beans also more wheat
Corn 3-1 stocks 5 B and soybeans 940 m
Interior basis firms in tightly supplied corn
Colder than normal and dry with a storm coming
Export sales Thursday has been good in wheat, poor corn and slipping in beans
S American maturing weather has been ideal
High dollar has crimped exports
Don’t pay too much attention to market commentators as they talk out of their positions
On the trading floors I was besieged by brokers who were arguing for their position thinking I could sway the trade, and that was nonsense


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