Seed Consultants 6/12/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

Global volatility
Dow falls 127 points to close at 14,995 or below around number support
S&P down 14
NASDAQ off 36
Upcoming Fed meeting rocks the financial boat
WTI crude up $ .48 under $ 96
Dollar index 81.00 off 11 is on the soft side but exports have not benefited from that
Gold closed $13 higher is of no consequence
10 year note pushes up top 2.23 %

Cash cattle call slightly lower, but August futures do nothing
Typical BBQ cuts for Father’s Day
July hogs were high at $110.07 but profit taking shaved the close back to $99.20
Reduced slaughter has boosted the hogs and pork
Nothing new on Hog virus or Chinese purchase rumors

Grain and soybeans
Dec corn closes below $5.40 support on a neutral S/D report
Yield ideas cut by 1.5 bpa, but production estimate unchanged, with no survey until August
Nov beans sold off 13 cents to close in range at $13.16
Soybean subjective crop guess was as expected
Final acreage of corn and soybeans on 6-28
Wheat not a variance with expectations, but July dropped 14 cents to $6.82 just above support
Black sea wheat is seen up 18%
Global wheat is ample
S/D reports this time of the year are just, Ball Park guesses
Severe storms are moving toward Chicago, but next week look pretty good for soybean planting
Aussie wheat estimate raised 500,000 tons to 25.4 MT or 15% greater than a year ago

1:05 update

Dec corn falls below $5.40, so watch the close the S/D update was unchanged regarding production despite a 1.5 bpa cut in yield
Nov beans over 20 lower but in range of $12.80-13.30 with the S/D static
July wheat down 15 cents
Black seas wheat production seen up 18%
Market action, even in these speculatively polluted times is the best measure
July hogs reached $100.07 but the fell back to $99.10 unchanged
Cattle just moseying around
Dow off 58, S&P down 6 and NASDAQ 20 lower

11:03 update

Stocks flat line
Japan says that GMO PNW wheat questions will not have long term impact
July wheat last $6.90 off 7 cents
Corn and soybean pancake
July hogs quietly up $.47 at $99.60


Pre open Dow up 77 is a rebound from 116 point loss
German bank warns about Chinese Yuan
European and Asian market mixed
Interest rates persist in their rise now at 2.21% on the 10 year up from 1.71% a few weeks ago
WTI up $.21 at $95.59
Gold steady at $1376
Dollar tame up 9 after a 58 point jump Tuesday
It’s a mad-mad world in monetary policy and just plain confused in fiscal strategy

Cash cattle are offered at $125 up from a $122 trade last week
Boxed beef off $.19 and up $.72 select
Features for Father’s Day: 5# of 73% ground beef for $1.88, choice T-bone $6.98, spare ribs $2.49 and legs and thighs $1.29
Pork cutout $1.38 with loins up $ 85, hams $1.06 and bellies down $1.66
Slaughter on par cattle at 125,000 and still light in hogs at 402,000
July hog resistance $100-101

Grain and soybeans
S/D update at 11 AM CDT will likely be just fine tuning
13/14 wheat carry over 640 m, corn 1.795 b and soybeans at 268 m
This compares with 12/13 at 733 m wheat, 759 m corn and 121 m beans
Nov beans closed at $13.29 with resistance from 13.30- 13.50
Corn and wheat in mid range
6-28 acreage report is a final summary
Argentine framers to suspend cash grain sales from Sunday –Wednesday in opposition to government policy
Severe storms to traverse the Midwest today and the several warm and dry to follow and this will drive soybean plantings toward their conclusion, now at 71%
Any corn or soybean switches or replants are usually not major market movers

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