Ryan Martin’s Indiana Ag Forecast for July 19, 2018

We are dry again today, but we are adding a little more moisture potential to our forecast starting tomorrow. Today we should be sunny and warm statewide, with temps getting back close to normal. High pressure is moving off to the east, allowing for south flow to dominate.

Rain starts tomorrow, and while we had a concern about southern Indiana getting better moisture than areas farther north, that concern is gone this morning. We see the initial moisture development much like our forecast from 24 hours ago, a second wave is slated to move in toward sunset and into the overnight tomorrow night and it likely triggers a nice batch of thunderstorms over the northern half of the state to be an equalizer when it comes to rain totals. We think that most of the state can be seeing .25”-1” tomorrow. Then for the weekend, we are toying with the idea of adding more moisture as well. We had seen the wrap around moisture behind the front really centering over Ohio over the past couple of forecast, but models are sneaking moisture back farther west on the past few runs, and we are now looking at a very real possibility of rains in Indiana all day Saturday and Sunday as well. We are not making a full-on forecast change this morning but feel we will need to with additional confirmation data today. So, if we can see the moisture hold here both days, that gives the potential to add another .25”-1” to the entire state, meaning we have the potential for up to 2” over 90% of Indiana by the time we get to sunrise Monday morning. Again, we will take another look at this again tomorrow morning and set our weekend forecast in stone. The map below gives an idea of our combined moisture thoughts of the weekend this morning.

We still look dry for all of next week, Monday through Friday. However, temperatures do not look to be a big story. We spend most of next week near normal. Temperatures this weekend will be below normal as the rains and that front move through.

The extended period has a system moving in from the west and northwest late the 28th into the 29th with rain potential of around half and inch. Another system is slated for the 31st into the 1st that can produce similar results. We have pulled rains from those systems back to the lower end of our previous forecast ranges this morning.

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