In the wake of significant rains this past weekend, we are trending our forecast a little less wet than we were concerned about last week for the next 10 days. Here is our breakdown.
High pressure will be moving into the region over the next two days. The high ends up sitting over north central to NW Ohio by tomorrow morning and then moves off to the east. The northern flow today means we will be chilly again, but we should feel a little warmer than yesterday, if for no other reason than the fact that the winds are significantly lower than yesterday. South winds up the backside of the high will allow for additional moderation in temps tomorrow. We will be dry both days, although clouds will start to build late tomorrow.
Wednesday kicks off a period that features scattered precipitation over several days. There is a massive and powerful storm complex coming out of the plains and lifting northeast at midweek. The track is well away from us here, and as such, we only have to worry about rain. In addition, the storm is so powerful, that it likely draws in a big batch of dry air in its circulation, and that starves out some of the moisture that was originally headed towards us. So, here is our update. On Wednesday we have scattered showers over about 60% of the state, bringing a few hundredths to .4” of rain. Scattered showers are back for Thursday and can trigger a few hundredths to .25” over about 30% of the state. Then for overnight Thursday night through Friday can’t rule out showers over about half of the state. Right now, we think these will be relatively minor again, but there is the potential for thunderstorms in southern Indiana. For that reason, we will allow for a few hundredths to half an inch but will refrain from ramping up our totals too much just yet. The map above shows potential rain totals through Friday evening. The main takeaway here is that we are looking for light on and off moisture through the second half of the week with decent combined coverage but nothing too dramatic on any given day. The biggest headline for the second half of the week will be temps…as we could see the warmest air in months coming across the region. 50s and 60s are possible Wednesday, and 70s Thursday thanks to strong south winds circulating around that strong, powerful storm. The map below shows potential high temps on Thursday. Those temps fall off back closer to normal to close the week and for the weekend.
For the weekend, we likely keep more clouds than sun in the forecast, at least on Saturday where we can’t rule out a few spits and sprinkles. Sunday has a better chance of some sun. Dry weather settles in for next Monday and Tuesday. We finish the 10 day window next Wednesday with some clouds in the north and east and perhaps a few hit and miss showers. But a large part of the state stays dry, and we have better sunshine potential the farther south and west across the state you go.
