2020 is expected to be a big year for U.S. ag export growth. China will have a lot to do with that once we get pen-to-paper on a Phase One trade deal.
“We have a date of January 15 …let’s hope it happens there,” says American Farm Bureau Federation senior congressional relations director Dave Salmonsen.
China is expected to ramp up its buys of U.S. farm goods to a just disclosed $40 billion a year for two-years, close to the $50 billion President Donald Trump demanded. But Salmonsen says it won’t just be China providing growth.
“Of course, January 1, the US-Japan deal came into effect. Now, according to the agreement that they made, within four-months, discussions on phase two of that deal can begin.”
Finalization of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, USMCA, could add $2.2 billion to agriculture’s bottom line in the United States.
2020 could also see trade talks with the United Kingdom accelerate.
“If the British maintain what they’re saying about leaving the European Union on January 31, then actually, you could start to see negotiations begin and then continue throughout next year and beyond, with the United Kingdom.”
However, the U.K. must first sign a deal with the European Union, setting trade rules that would be the basis for a US-UK deal…and one, still uncertain, with the E.U.
Back in Asia, U.S. trade eyes will again focus this year on former TPP partner Vietnam, plus the Philippines, Indonesia, and maybe even Taiwan, as trade tensions cool with its adversary, China.