Planting Weather Forecast: Warmer Temperatures, But Rain Chances Persist

Finally, we can say we are done with the well below normal temps over the state. However, we may not be able to ramp up planting just yet. The coming 10 days look to be rather unsettled, with the potential for on-an-off precipitation over the region.
Our weekend starts dry with Saturday turning out sunny and warm. However, late last week we had to move our next chance of rain forward, and we still see that to be the case. Rain and thunderstorms will move through the state for Sunday, bringing potential for .25”-1.25” rains and 80% coverage. The higher rain totals can be in northern Indiana out of that wave.
Monday sees scattered showers again, over the state, with a resurgence in strength in the afternoon and evening, lingering into early Tuesday. That wave can bring another .25”-1” with coverage at 70%. The balance of Tuesday will turn out partly sunny and humid, while staying warm.
Wednesday and Thursday should be sunny, warm, and dry, meaning we end up with 2-3 days of back to back dry weather with good evaporation. Will it be enough? Depends on soil type and where you were in regard to rain totals from Sunday and Monday. On Friday showers work back into the state from the west and southwest. That threat of showers lingers through the weekend too. We may see no better than 50% coverage on any specific day, Friday through Sunday, but combined we end up at 90% with additional rain potential at .25”-.75” over the state. The map below shows cumulative precipitation over Indiana through the end of this coming weekend.

Next week starts with sunshine for Monday into early Tuesday. The upstream pattern to the west and northwest looks drier. However, most of the precipitation this week will be coming from a very active sub-tropical jet stream to our south, and if that stays active, that may override our normal west to east flow pattern and keep us wetter. Stay tuned.
Extended Period:
The extended 11-16 day forecast period features a cold front sagging through next Tuesday night (5/16) that brings .1”-.6” over about 70% of the state. Behind that we cool slightly but should stay fully dry with excellent evaporation for the 17th all the way through early the 21st. A strong low and frontal complex will be developing in the northern plains and upper Midwest for Sunday the 21st, and we likely will need to watch for showers and storms late that day and to start the week of the 22nd.

Weeks 3 & 4:
The weather pattern looks pretty benign in the super long term this week. Weeks 3 and 4 both look to be normal to slightly below normal on precipitation and then normal to somewhat below normal on temperatures. While not ideal on temps, the level below normal that we are does not suggest problems with emergence, as long as we get long enough windows to put crops in the ground here in May.
 Week 3 Precipitation (Green = above normal, Brown = below)

Week 3 Temperatures (yellow/orange = above normal, blue = below)

Week 4 Precipitation (Green = above normal, Brown = below)

Week 4 Temperatures (yellow/orange = above normal, blue = below)


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