Following the release of the USDA’s World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report, as well as the USDA’s Crop Production Report Friday afternoon, the biggest concern may be the lack of demand that is currently being shown for corn according to Brian Basting, Commodity Research Analyst with Advance Trading, Inc.
“As we shifted through the WASDE report, we looked at weaker demand both for old-crop corn and new-crop corn. I think that the combination of weaker demand trends—particularly in exports—and the improving weather picture, are just weighing on these markets,” he says.
Basting adds that September Corn is trading at its lowest price in two years.
“Are we going to see some higher demand at these lower prices? We’re seeing corn set a contract low. Are we going to see demand surface? Are we going to see some users come in here and buy? If they don’t, then that’s a bad sign in terms of a producer standpoint, so I think that’s the key thing now,” says Basting.
According to the USDA’s August WASDE Report, the 2023-2024 U.S. corn outlook calls for reduced supplies, lower domestic use, smaller exports, and tighter ending stocks. With supply declining more than use, ending stocks are lowered 60 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The first survey-based yield projection is 175.1 bushels per acre, 2.4 bushels lower than last month. The season-average corn price rose 10 cents to $4.90 a bushel.
U.S. soybean supply and use changes include higher beginning stocks and lower production and exports. The current yield forecast is 50.9 bushels, down 1.1 bushels from last month. Ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, 55 million lower than last month. The season-average soybean price is $12.70, up 30 cents from last month.
The wheat outlook is for lower supplies, slightly lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher stocks. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels and season-average price is unchanged at $7.50.
Click below to hear Brian Basting’s market analysis for Hoosier Ag Today.
Click below to watch The Purdue Crop Chat Podcast from Friday, Aug. 11. The podcast was recorded live via Facebook Live several hours after the release of the USDA’s August Crop Production Report.
