An Economic Research Service report shows the full impact of African Swine Fever in China, and the impact was likely more than Chinese officials reported.
The agency’s report investigated how China’s reduced pork supplies affected other pork-exporting countries. The virus moved from Europe to China and spread rapidly throughout the country, leading to a 30-month cycle of decline and recovery between 2018 and 2021.
China lost an estimated 27.9 million metric tons of its pork production during that 30-month cycle. Pork prices in China more than doubled, with most of the increase occurring about a year after the initial outbreaks.
A total of 31 countries saw surging pork exports to China during the down cycle.
Impacts on pork markets outside of China were relatively modest. Increases in pork prices in leading exporters like the U.S., Germany, and Spain, were relatively brief and much smaller than the price increases in China.