Basting: USDA Reports Created a ‘Double Whammy’ for Corn Futures


The USDA’s Acreage Report and Quarterly Stocks Report released on Friday were both bearish for corn futures, causing the July contract to drop by 16 ½ cents and end the day below $4.00 a bushel at $3.97 ¼ .

According to the USDA’s June Planted Acreage Report, corn planted area for all purposes is currently estimated at 91.5 million acres, down three percent, or three million acres, from last year, but ahead of expectations from March’s prospective plantings report. U.S. farmers still have 3.36 million acres of corn to plant and 12.8 million soybean acres.

Soybean planted area for 2024 is estimated at 86.1 million acres, up three percent from 2023. The all-wheat planted area for 2024 is estimated at 47.2 million acres, down five percent from last year. The 2024 winter wheat planted area, at 33.8 million acres, is down eight percent from last year and one percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 24.1 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.14 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.59 million acres are white winter.

USDA’s June Grain Stocks Report shows corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2024, totaled 4.99 billion bushels, up 22 percent from June 1, 2023. Of the total stocks, 3.03 billion bushels are stored on farms, 37 percent higher than last year. Off-farm stocks hit 1.97 billion bushels, four percent higher than in 2023.

in all positions on June 1 totaled 970 million bushels, up 22 percent from June 1, 2023. On-farm stocks were up 44 percent from last year at 466 million bushels. Off-farm stocks, at 504 million, are up six percent from last year. Old crop all wheat stored in all positions totaled 702 million bushels, up 23 percent over 2023. On-farm stocks are estimated at 139 million bushels, up 12 percent from last year.

The data from USDA’s reports was from June 1—however, flooding in portions of Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota has since had a negative impact on corn and soybean crops in those areas. Recent rainfall in some areas reached up to 15 inches, causing problems in already saturated conditions from earlier in the summer. USDA will provide updated production projections on July 12.

According to Brian Basting, Community Research Analyst with Advance Trading, Inc., the USDA’s data hit the grain markets with a “double whammy” on Friday, which may cause corn futures to dip even lower in the coming days and weeks.

“From a risk management standpoint, I’d encourage producers to manage these lower prices,” says Basting. “If they’ve got positions in place, that’s strongly encouraged because trying to pick a bottom is historically dangerous because the market will always surprise you, so manage these markets lower if you got risk management positions in place now.”

Click BELOW to hear Brian Basting’s review of the USDA’s Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports and their impacts on the grain markets.



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