Farmers across the U.S. are entering the spring planting season under mounting financial strain, as surging fertilizer and fuel costs—driven in part by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—reshape purchasing decisions and threaten crop production.
A new survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), conducted in early April among more than 5,700 producers, found roughly 70 percent of respondents cannot afford all the fertilizer they need, raising concerns about yields and food supply in the year ahead.
The financial pressure is widespread. Nearly six in 10 farmers reported worsening economic conditions, while 94 percent said their situation has either declined or remained unchanged compared with last year. Rising input costs are central to the downturn: nitrogen fertilizer prices have climbed more than 30 percent since tensions escalated in the Middle East, while farm diesel prices have jumped 46 percent since late February, sharply increasing the cost of fieldwork, transportation and irrigation.
The strain is unevenly distributed across regions, reflecting differences in crop types and purchasing strategies. In the Midwest, where corn and soybean producers typically secure inputs well ahead of planting, about 67 percent of farmers pre-booked fertilizer. That compares with just 19 percent in the South and roughly 30 percent in the Northeast and West, leaving many producers in those regions more exposed to sudden price spikes.
“These differences really matter,” said Faith Parum, AFBF economist, noting that farmers who delayed purchases were hit hardest by recent increases. In the South, where crops such as cotton, rice and peanuts require significant nutrient inputs, 78 percent of farmers reported being unable to afford all necessary fertilizer. More than 80 percent of producers growing those commodities said costs have forced difficult decisions about application rates and acreage.
Farm size also plays a role. Smaller operations are significantly less likely to pre-book fertilizer than larger farms, increasing their exposure to volatile in-season prices and heightening the risk of reduced yields and tighter margins.
The consequences could ripple beyond the farm.
“When farmers cut back on planted acres and their fertilizer use, it obviously reduces their yields,” said American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall. “To put it simply: less food in the supply chain.”
Some producers say they are already adjusting, either by reducing fertilizer applications or delaying purchases in hopes that prices will ease later in the growing season—moves that could further limit production potential if costs remain elevated.
Underlying the price surge is a global supply chain vulnerable to disruption. Countries tied to the Persian Gulf account for nearly half of global urea exports and about 30 percent of ammonia exports, making fertilizer markets highly sensitive to instability in the region. The closure of key shipping routes has tightened supplies, even as higher energy prices increase the cost of producing fertilizer itself.
Even if geopolitical tensions subside, economists warn that relief may not come quickly. “It would take a while for those prices to come back down to normal,” Parum said, adding that the financial impact on farmers is likely to persist for months.
With commodity prices already low and input costs climbing, farm groups are increasingly calling for federal assistance to offset mounting losses. Without intervention—or a sharp reversal in global markets—the decisions farmers make this spring could reverberate through harvests, markets and grocery aisles well into 2026.
CLICK HERE to read the full survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation.
