AccuWeather is forecasting a slightly lower number of U.S. wildfires in 2026, but warns that those that ignite could be more intense and destructive.
Experts say conditions such as drought, heat, wind, and dry vegetation are increasing the likelihood of fast-spreading fires.
“Expanding drought, combined with heat, wind, and dry vegetation, is a dangerous combination,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster. He noted that, similar to the severe 2020 season, fires this year could grow rapidly and become harder to control, while also spreading smoke across large portions of the country.
AccuWeather projects 65,000 to 80,000 wildfires nationwide, with 5.5 to 8 million acres burned, potentially exceeding last year’s total.
The interior Northwest and Rockies are expected to face the highest risk. “Even if the total number of fires is lower, that does not mean the overall risk is reduced,” Pastelok said, emphasizing growing nationwide concerns.
