After USDA’s August yield estimates, the market has been waiting for clarification that these estimates are too high or about right. That clarification will come from early combine figures. Jim Bower, with Bower Trading, says so far those numbers are not giving us a clear picture so far, “We had one report from a grower in Southern Indiana that seemed to confirm the USDA numbers, as it was well above expectations. But, we have also had several reports from just south of Springfield, IL that were very disappointing to the producer.” Bower adds the next two weeks as early harvest ramps up will be critical for market direction.
The September USDA report, to be released this week, is not expected to show any changes in production estimates but may show a jump in demand as export sales have been good. Last week, new crop corn sales were 1.480 MMT (58.3 million bushels), solidly above market expectations of 650 – 950k tons. Official export data shows 2016-17 soybean exports are likely to exceed the USDA’s export projection.
Bower feels exports will continue strong because of a weaker U.S. dollar, “But I worry that competition from Brazil will become a serious factor later this year.” Bower says the cattle market will also be one to watch as hurricane damage has impacted the sizeable cattle industry in both Texas and Florida.
For more information, contact Bower Trading at 800-533-8045 or www.bowertrading.com.
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