Our weather pattern gets a little more active as we kick off this last harvest forecast. We have 3 waves of moisture moving through this week alone and have the potential for more as we head toward Thanksgiving. Our first minor rains arrive Sunday midday and will be the most intense through the afternoon and evening hours. We expect showers to give a few hundredths to up to half an inch over about 70% of the state.
Dry weather is back on Monday and at least Tuesday. Sunshine should be dominant for the period, particularly on Tuesday, with south winds start developing Tuesday ahead of our second system that arrives on Wednesday. Those south winds will moderate temps for at least midweek, and we think even most of the balance of the week. Rains look good with the potential of .1”-.7” over the entire region – 100% coverage. This is a system that hits everyone and will cause field work stoppage everywhere, if only for a day or so.
The third system of the week is a big one. This is a powerful low that comes out of the plains and tracks across the Upper Midwest. However, we feel the effects down here and will be looking for an additional .25”-1” of rain over the state, mostly on Saturday, but we can’t rule out the action from Friday midday through Sunday. Most of the reason for opening up a range like that is the fact that the storm is so large geographically, and the winds are very, very powerful, meaning we could feel influence from the system for a longer period. The track takes the system well to our north and west, but we also are keeping an eye on this bad boy for any signs it wants to sag farther south and east. The map above is of total moisture potential from these 3 systems combined.
In the extended period, while high pressure remains in control early on, we still are keeping an eye on the period just ahead of and through the Thanksgiving holiday. A strong front still has the potential to make life interesting in that period with rains up to 1.5”.
Weeks 3 & 4:
We have a strong front in around the 28th that can bring .25”-.75” spots of rain, and then a stronger system around the 4th and 5th of December that could drag half to 1 inch of precipitation out over 2 days. But, in general, we see temperatures and precipitation below normal for week 3, and temperatures and precipitation near normal for week 4. There is minimal excitement here.