The next 10 days are mostly dry, but cold. The one is partially a function of the other. Colder air is drier air…and as such is more difficult to hold large amounts of water. So, our next leg of cold air that comes in brings some moisture, but in the form of snow, and the liquid equivalent is not all that high. Getting out into the extended period, as we warm, we have chances for bigger rains. Here is the breakdown.
Dry for the weekend. We have clouds building on Sunday afternoon, as our cold fronts arrives in northern Indiana already Sunday night. Temps will be moderating through the weekend, but will never be “warm”, so to speak. Still, they will be much warmer than what is expected for next week.
Snow showers develop overnight Sunday night through Monday. Right now we look for a coating to 2 inches over 90% of the state, and then we have to watch for some lake effect and lake enhancement on top of that in far northern and NW areas of Indiana. This can bump snow totals or potential in those areas. Still, this will be a fast moving system, and everything should be done (with exception of lake effect) by Monday late afternoon/evening.
Much colder for Tuesday through Thursday. The coldest day will be Tuesday, with temps as much as 20-30 degrees below normal (see map). Lake effect snow and clouds can be around Tuesday up north, and then we have a minor little “clipper” disturbance for overnight Wednesday night, again over the northern part of the state. There rest of the state just sees partly to mostly sunny skies and we will be very cold. Mostly sunny skies likely the balance of the week Friday and Saturday, with slowly moderating temps. Sun will be followed by clouds next Sunday
For next week, we start with scattered light rain (yes, rain) for northern areas overnight Sunday night through Monday. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to .4” with coverage at 80%. However, south of I-70, we stay with nothing. After a dry day Tuesday the 19th, we have to keep an eye out for heavier rains on Wednesday the 20th, with some models suggesting half to 1-inch rains, but timing anywhere from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning. There is a system there…the timing will be what likely drives the strength (or lack thereof). We finish next week partly sunny and stay mild…the theme of the entire week will be much warmer than this week.
We should continue to see normal to slightly above normal temps through weeks 3 and 4, and a more active precipitation track to our south, allowing for some windows of drier weather.
Precipitation, week ending November 30 (green: above normal, brown: below)
Precipitation, Week ending December 7 (green: above normal, brown: below)