More dry weather in today through the end of the week. We are making no changes to our forecast this morning. Temps will be on the way up for the period, and we should see above normal daytime highs by this weekend over the entire state.
We are keeping our forecast dry for Sunday-Monday-Tuesday of next week as well. We continue to watch Hurricane Florence as she approaches the Carolinas, to see how she interacts with the coat. Models are still split on whether she comes right in and then curves northeast, or whether she stays offshore, slows and then takes more of a “loopty-loop” (a highly precise meteorological term) before coming ashore farther south. Right now only one terrestrial model is championing that approach, while the others look for more of a direct landfall. That would support more rain in the southeast and mid-Atlantic, keeping action out of areas west of the Appalachians. However, we are starting to see a few more models start to show signs that they may hedge toward a further surge inland…so if we do get some moisture across the mountains, then all of a sudden, some clouds and showers back into far southeast Indiana become more of a possibility. For now, like yesterday, we remain on the dry side, and look for the remains of this hurricane to NOT be an issue early next week, but may have put a little more moisture in for Tuesday, particularly in the far southern and eastern parts of the state. WV still has the biggest threat of rains from Florence.
Our next front arrives next Wednesday afternoon and evening. It still does not look impressive at all. We will leave rain totals at a few hundredths to .3” of moisture but will pull coverage back to roughly 50% of the state. This front is gone by midday Thursday, and we return to drier weather through the rest of the week. The map at right shows cumulative rain potential over the next ten days…through next Friday. The biggest part of this moisture shown on the map comes from next Wednesday’s front.
In the extended period, our next front around the 23rd and 24th looks to be delayed by about 12 hours or so and may be more of a 24th alone or even a 24th-25th event. That system also does not look as strong and may bring up to half an inch of rain to about 60% of the state.
Above normal temps are likely through at least the 22nd. we may see some cooler air trying to move in for the last week of the month. This forecast still looks pretty good for getting a good start on the harvest.