Market Expecting a Bearish Report on Friday
The trade will be surprised if Friday’s USDA Report does not show an increase in U.S. corn and soybean acreage estimates. Along with the June Acreage Report, the USDA will release its June Quarterly Grain Stocks Report at Noon EDT. Arlan Suderman, with INTL FCStone, told HAT most of the bearish expectations have already been factored into the market, “I think you would have to have an acreage surprise of more than 1 million acres either way and a stocks number 200 million bushels either direction to really make a difference.”
In the past five years, the corn acreage estimate has risen three out of the five years from the March Intentions Report. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean acreage estimates have risen for eight straight years, according to USDA statistics. “Trying to outguess USDA reports is an exercise in frustration,” stated Tom Fritz, with EFG in Chicago.
Suderman said, after the USDA reports, the market will turn its attention to pollination, “July could be a very volatile month.” He speculated that, if July turns hot and dry, the market will rally.
The USDA numbers will be available on this wed site Friday afternoon
