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Midday Update

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Midday Update

  • Trade chatter about a possible strike at Brazil’s port of Santos today were replaced by a midday march that would not disrupt port activities.
  • Russia’s Ag Minister stated that a decision on whether to remove the export tax on wheat may not come until June when the size of the crop is better known. Russia is also considering lifting restrictions on some western food imports.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its soybean production estimate for Argentina to 59 mmt today, up from 58 mmt previously and up from USDA’s estimate of 57 mmt. It’s corn estimate is now 25.7 mmt, up from 23.5 mmt previously and up from USDA’s estimate of 24 mmt.
  • The Department of Energy reports that ethanol stocks rose to 20.6 million barrels in the week ending April 10, up from 20.5 million the previous week and 16.0 million in the same week last year. Ethanol production fell to a 25-week low of 924K barrels per day, versus 936K the previous week and 939K barrels per day in the same week last year.
  • Iowa joins the list of states where bird flu has been confirmed, whereas the list of confirmations in Minnesota is now at 22, with 1.5 million turkeys giving their life. That is starting to impact demand for soymeal.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reports that its members crushed 162.82 million bushels of soybeans in March, above trade expectations of 155.3 million and our expectations of 155.8 million.
  • Cash hogs are steady to $1  higher.
  • Corn futures are up 2 and off their highs as upward momentum in soybeans slowed.
  • Soybeans are up 7 and 9 cents off their high following the friendly crush report.
  • Wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents weaker on rains.
  • Live cattle futures are $0.90 to $1.15 higher on follow-through buying and  higher product prices.
  • Feeder cattle are $1.40 to $1.85 higher.
  •   Lean hog futures are down $1.80 to $2.50 on avian flu fears.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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