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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1, soybeans +6, wheat +1, crude oil +.70, dollar -.34, gold +1.0 and the Dow -4.
  • Grain markets higher overnight. Soybeans higher on good demand. Corn supported on short covering.
  • Linn & Associates out yesterday with corn yield estimate of 171.5 bpa and soybeans at 49.6 bpa.
  • Analyst estimates ahead of next Monday’s USDA supply/demand report for corn yield are at 173.4 bpa vs the August USDA estimate of 175.1 bpa.
  • China’s Grain and Oils Info Center says China’s 2016 corn production will fall to 201.5 mln mt, off 2.3% from 2015.
  • EIA energy stocks report will be out this morning.
  • Yesterday funds bought 8,000 corn, 6,000 soybeans and 3,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

·         Rains favored parts of E. KS/N. MO/SE IA/N. IL/S. WI/C. MI/N. IN during past day; ongoing Midwest rain rest of week

·         Weak Midwest front late Mon./Tue.; 6-10 day drier than yesterday other than late-week rain MO/KS & S. OH Valley

·         11-15 day wetter though, hindering Midwest corn/soy harvest and maintaining some elevated disease pressure

·         No signs of notable frost risks through next 2 weeks in Midwest, with coolest air at middle of next week

·         Wetter trends in Delta cause minor 6-10 day corn/soy harvest interruptions; otherwise favorably dry for South

·         Rains slow early Plains wheat seeding but aid moisture; Canada drier for wheat/canola harvest after this week

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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