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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn even, soybeans +2 ½, wheat +2, crude oil -.84, dollar +.08, gold -4.0 and the Dow +23.
  • Mixed grains this morning on quite news. Some end user pricing providing support while the open weather and bulk of harvest hang on the trade.
  • Corn yields variable depending on region while soybeans continue to impress – leading many traders to expect a soy yield increase in the Oct 12th USDA report.
  • USDA reported corn harvest at 15% vs 19% on average for the date. Soybeans are 10% harvested vs 13% on average.
  • Trade estimates for Friday’s USDA Quarterly Stocks report: Corn 1.754 bln bu vs 1.731 bln last year. Soybeans 201 mln bu vs 191 bln a year ago.  Wheat at 2.397 bln bu vs 2.097 bln last year. Trade mostly on the lookout for surprises in wheat and soybeans.
  • Wheat traders are watching the wet weather in Australia which could erode crop quality.
  • Funds were estimated sellers of 11,000 corn, 6,000 soybeans and 4,000 wheat yesterday.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

·         Limited Midwest showers yesterday; rains limited to E. OH Valley/Great Lakes rest of week (east dries in 6-15 day)

·         Wetness concerns in W. Midwest ease, although showers next Tue./Wed. & in 11-15 day still limit harvest advances

·         Heavier rain outlook (locally 3 to 6”) this week from C. NC into Mid-Atlantic threatens already wet cotton/soy areas

·         Corn/soy/cotton harvest delays otherwise limited in South but need to monitor tropical storm next week for changes

·         Plains wheat seeding interruptions minor in next 2 weeks, but recently dry spots in SW KS likely to persist & build

·         Rains slow Canadian wheat/canola harvest this weekend/early next week, but pace improves in rest of 15-day period

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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