USDA unveiled the February supply and demand estimates Tuesday afternoon, and some were left wondering why big changes in crop export forecasts weren’t made. The U.S. and China trade deal, which is signed and in effect, was expected to make a difference in those export forecasts, but there weren’t a lot of changes, according to USDA’s chief economist Rob Johansson. He says there were a number of reasons there weren’t big changes.
“Increase in exports to China often times will come from decrease in exports to another part of the globe.”
The USDA report only shows net exports, not sales to any one country. Also, the reports are based on a marketing year for crops. The marketing year ends this summer, but the China purchase commitments were made on a calendar year basis.
“So, any changes in China purchases could occur now, could occur in October or November when we’re harvesting our crop.”
That’s when prices for most crops would be lower and chances of sales higher.