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No Hope for Higher Prices in USDA Report

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USDA made no changes to the US corn balance sheet while globally the coarse grain supplies for 15/16 were projected 1.6 mln tons lower on lower beginning stocks of corn in Brazil and lower production out of South Africa. US balance sheet continues to risk a lowering of exports due to the slow pace to date for the marketing year. US soybean production was revised lower due to South Carolina production, but US ending stocks jumped 10 mln bu from last month on the slower crush. Global oilseed production for 15/16 is projected at 526.9 mln tons, down slightly from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 320.2 mln tons, also down slightly from last month. The trade now looks to the March 31 plating intentions report and for spring weather patterns for price direction.

CORN: Corn food, seed, and industrial use is lowered slightly for 2014/15 reflecting a 9-millionbushel reduction in estimated corn used in ethanol production based on revisions to monthly data reported in the March 1 Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production 2015 Summary. The midpoint for the projected corn price remains $3.60 per bushel.

SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean production is projected at 3,929 million bushels, down slightly from last month due to a revision to South Carolina production. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 460 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2015/16 is projected at $8.25 to $9.25 per bushel, down 5 cents at the midpoint.

WHEAT: There are no changes to this month’s all wheat balance sheets. By class, Hard Red Winter wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels and Hard Red Spring wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels. Global 2015/16 wheat supplies are lowered 3.3 million tons primarily on decreased production. World wheat consumption for 2015/16 is lowered 2.0 million tons to 709.4 million. India consumption is lowered 1.0 million tons reflecting the smaller crop.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher forecast first-quarter broiler and turkey production more than offsets small reductions in beef and pork. The egg production forecast is raised on increased table egg production as the sector continues to rebuild following last year’s Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks.
The milk production forecast for 2016 is lowered from last month. The butter price forecast is raised as demand remains firm. Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are reduced as supplies are expected to be large and international prices will remain under pressure from large global supplies. The whey price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price is lowered on the lower cheese price.