Temps really climb this weekend. With strong south winds, we will see temps in the 80s statewide for Saturday, and we would make it there again on Sunday, if it weren’t for the approaching front bringing some rain. These temps for Saturday will likely be the warmest temperatures in 8 months. The map below shows highs on Saturday.
Scattered showers arrive Sunday midday to early afternoon then continue through the evening and overnight. We are leaving rain totals in the range of a few hundredths to .3” with coverage at 70%. However, given the heavy rains and thunderstorms from Thursday night and the primed nature of our atmosphere, we do have some concern that rains Sunday could easily be heavier. We are keeping fingers crossed. In fact, we are getting some indications that perhaps another 10% of the state may see some slightly better chances for thunderstorms, and rain totals closer to half an inch (or slightly higher). Most of these areas are in the southern half of the state.
A large part of our forecast for next week remains dry. Sunshine dominates for Monday and Tuesday morning. Sunshine also dominates from Wednesday afternoon through next Sunday. That leaves our “thorn in the side” of Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. I’d like to be able to promise we miss those rains, and the action stays to the west. But at this point, we think there really is very little chance of that taking flight. Thunderstorms can get into western Indiana after sunset Tuesday night, and we are left with scattered showers over the rest of the state into mid morning Wednesday. Most rain totals will be under half an inch, but those areas with thunderstorms can see higher totals. There still looks to be a good window behind that threat through the rest of the week over a majority of the state. However, with warm temps, we are staring to see some suggestions that instability will grow for Thursday forward…that could lead to some isolated thunderstorms if things play out just right.
The rest of the extended period features no change in our thoughts. We remain on track to see a little more activity returning as we finish the Memorial Day holiday weekend. For Memorial Day, we turn out cloudy to partly sunny with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in. We are raising rain totals for Memorial Day to .25”-.75” with 60% coverage. Tuesday the 28 still looks like the wettest day of the period as we are upping our rain potential there to half to 2 inches and coverage at 80%. The rest of the extended period we are keeping dry with partly to mostly sunny skies the 29th through the 31st.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Week three looks like it may be mostly dry with high pressure close by. Week 4 though brings a strong storm complex for June 8th-9th, potentially triggering up to 2” of rain.