Planting Forecast: Minor Disturbance In Planting Followed By Good Weather

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After a dry day Saturday in the wake of a frontal passage, on Sunday we see a minor disturbance coming back across the Great Lakes and eastern Corn Belt. This system does not have a significant amount of moisture with it, but will bring plenty of clouds, and can trigger light rains. From late morning Sunday through Sunday night we see a few hundredths to .4″ of rain, with coverage at nearly 70% of the state. To be clear, the moisture is not impressive. But, if we see clouds and even minor moisture on Sunday afternoon and evening, we most definitely are not seeing any drying. That gets put on hold until we get into the week on Monday.

We are dry with sunshine for Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday. Temps will be working higher through the period, with temps well above normal again on Wednesday ahead of our next front. Through those three days, we will see good drying, with low humidity levels and evaporation from .18″-.25″ of moisture per day.

A strong cold front sweeps across the entire state Thursday. Precipitation starts late Wednesday night, closer to midnight, and then goes through the entire day Thursday. Rain totals can be from .25″-1″ with coverage at 90%. The key to higher rain totals will be thunderstorm development. If the moisture speeds up a bit and can feed off of warmth from Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms become more likely. Right now, we think a large part of the state will see rains more in the half to .75” range because thunderstorms should miss most of us. Time will tell.

Friday and Saturday should be mostly dry with clouds giving way to sun on Friday. Temps pull back closer to normal. 10 day expected rain totals are shown on the map above.

 

Extended Period:

The rest of the 10-day period and the extended forecast window shows a relatively active pattern, with a system coming across the region every couple of days. We see scattered showers for Sunday the 13th. This wave so far does not have an exceptional amount of moisture with it, but we are watching to see if it wants to strengthen. At this point, we are expecting .25″-.5″. The rest of the extended period brings another system late the 16th into the 17th with .25-.75″ rains over 70% of the state. Then, closer to the 20th, we see a slower, sagging front coming in from the NW, and it can bring .25″-1″ over 60% of the state.

Temperatures are mostly normal to above normal through this next 2-week period. Excessive heat is not likely, but neither is a major cold air outbreak.

Weeks 3 & 4:

 

A dry window emerges for all of week 3. We see little to no precipitation from the 21st through the 29th. Minor rains develop on the 30th, and then we are dry for the 31st through the 1st. A powerful storm brings heavy rain for the 2nd, 3rd and maybe the 4th, with 1-3 inches possible. Then we are dry from the 5th of June potentially all the way up through the 13th.

 

Week 3

 

Week 4

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)
Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)