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Planting Forecast: More Moisture Moving Through

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Ryan Martin’s Hoosier Ag Today Planting Weather Forecast is brought to you by your Indiana Corn and Soybean checkoff programs and First Farmers Bank & Trust.

Sun starts off the day Saturday, but clouds return quickly and bring scattered showers back by late afternoon. They continue through the overnight tomorrow night and will be done by sunrise Sunday. Rain totals there can be from a few hundredths up to half an inch with 70% coverage across the state. The half inch totals will be limited to the northern third of the state, north of US 24. Sunday turns out partly sunny, but cool. In fact, morning lows Sunday morning can be pushing the lower 30s in Northern Indiana.

Wet weather is back for a large part of next week. We have rain in the forecast for most of the state on at least 3 of the 5 days of the work week. Monday moisture runs back into the state with .25”-.1” rain totals and 80% coverage. Tuesday has lingering showers mostly central and south, but we won’t rule them out anywhere. Rain totals will be a few hundredths to half an inch, coverage 50% statewide. Showers and thunderstorms are here for both Wednesday and Thursday. Rain totals can be from .1”-.75” Wednesday, half to 1.5” Thursday with coverage each day at 80% statewide.

Friday scattered showers linger and can add another .25” of liquid, but the biggest key there is that we are not going to be drying. Next Saturday should turn out mostly sunny, with no change from our previous forecast. Sunday continues to be a key date to watch. Models are flip flopping on the potential for a strong cluster of thunderstorms trying to push up from the SW. If that movement develops, that would bring rains of .25”-1.5” to the state with 75% coverage, and the potential for some strong to severe weather.  If not, we could see dry weather for Sunday afternoon, and then also into Monday and Tuesday, the 6th and 7th. So, the thunderstorm cluster is very important to watch for development or dissipation, because that is what looks like the only thing standing in the way of us seeing about a 4-day dry stretch that finishes the 10 day period and moves into the extended window. The map below shows cumulative 10-day rain totals for the period from the 27th through the May 5th. The map shows the worst case scenario of our daily totals listed above from today forward…but still, even if we get the lower end of each range…that’s a lot of water!!

Another story for this coming week will be temperatures. We will see normal to below normal temps, and we continue to be concerned about potential for frost in the May 1-10 window. Days to watch right snow are the morning May 4th (32-34 degree morning lows in north central Indiana) and May 5th (33-35 degree morning lows in NE Indiana)

Extended Period:

The rest of the extended forecast has rain returning for Wednesday the 8th, and then rain chances each day all the way through the 11th. That period could end up triggering some half to 2” rain totals combined over all 4 days. That means we still do not see a good enough period of dry down that gets us super excited about major planting progress here in Indiana.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Weeks 3 and 4 are still looking cooler than normal over the entire state. We also have seen our hope for a dry window deteriorate quickly. We have 1 system coming through in week three that lasts at least 24-36 hours (14th-15th), and can bring half to 1” or more, and then 2 systems in week 4 (20th-21st, and 24th) that bring rains up to 1.5” combined and full state coverage. The windows for drying will be short and tight. This set up produces near normal precipitation for week three, and near to slightly above normal for week 4.

Week 3

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

Week 4

Precipitation (green: above normal, brown: below)

Temperatures (blue: below normal, orange: above)

Soil temps as of Friday (4/26)

Averaging mid 40s to mid 60s. look for these to drop several degrees following this weekend’s cold push.