The Rabobank Food and Agribusiness Research and Advisory Group recently put out a report about the cool, wet conditions in much of the Midwest – and concerns regarding future weather delaying the normal cycle of fertilizer restocking. Sterling Liddell is the Senior Vice President of the RaboBank group that released the findings.
“As we looked at what’s happening globally and domestically we see a number of issues that have been developing. Most of them don’t have much to do with the amount of supply, but the capability of moving that supply into the appropriate areas. When we look at all three of the nutrients there appears to be ample supply coming out of production, however moving it, especially in North America has been a challenge because of river issues and also very wet spring that has delayed field work and and activity.”
The report goes on to show the fast-approaching Northern Hemisphere planting season will be pivotal in driving short-term agri-commodity prices. Across South America – all eyes are on the weather as planting of winter crops continues.
Rabobank’s outlook for urea for Quarter Two of 2013 is neutral to negative.
“Urea has really begun to wane. There are several factors globally that are affecting this. There was some higher dollar purchases out of the Black Seas area earlier, however that’s looking more and more like a high end purchase. The Middle East has had an ample supply coming out of its production. In addition India has held off in doing a new urea tender, and the estimate is that they have enough urea stocks to put them into early June, so expecting another tender out of India as well. But all this together is causing downward pressure on at least international prices of urea.”
The report also took into account phosphate and potash prices which are currently experiencing some downward pressure according to Liddell. Supplies of both are ample right now.
Source: Ohio Ag Net