A front is moving over the state today and will bring more rain to the region. Rain started late yesterday afternoon and will continue into tomorrow morning. We will keep general rain totals at half to 1.5” over 90% of the state but will grant that some areas saw heavier thunderstorms last night and have a good chance to exceed that, if they haven’t already. Today’s action takes on more of a scattered shower characteristic through the day, but there is a threat of thunderstorm action again this afternoon and evening. The progression of this storm back the past few days has been one of the thunderstorms both ahead of and behind the front, so we expect that to continue here. Scattered showers hold into mid to late morning tomorrow, before dissipating. Clouds remain through tomorrow afternoon, but the rains should be done before noon.
We are dry for Thursday and Friday morning as sunshine takes control. However, clouds are bay by late morning on Friday. We have a front that will slowly sag into northern Indiana Friday afternoon and evening. From there, it continues south and east into early afternoon Saturday before falling apart. Moisture still does not look all that impressed with the front, and we are going to keep our thinking at a few hundredths to a few tenths. Coverage will be around 50% of the state.
Another wave arrives for Sunday, particularly in the afternoon, and continues through Monday. This system does look stronger this morning and has the potential for half to 1 inch of rain now in our forecast. This will boost our 10-day totals to well over 2 inches in many places. Coverage still looks good at 80% of the state or better. We move back to dry weather to finish the 10-day period next Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday, although some models are trying to bring in some scattered showers for late Wednesday. The map at right is a total of rain potential through the entire 10-day period.
The extended period is still rather unsettled. We continue to see models wide apart on a solution. We are keeping a front moving across the state for next Friday, the 17th. This will trigger some .25”-1” showers of rain over about 70% of the state. But, we are keeping our forecast drier behind that system, all the way into the 20th. The model that is the wettest also is keeping the biggest rains south of I-70, and to do that we would be parking a high right on top of the great lakes. That seems a bit suspect at this point, given the large upper-level ridge that will be building through the next 10 days in the plains. So, we are telling mother nature this morning to prove otherwise, and we are staying with a dry trend for a large part of the extended period.
Temperatures will be near normal for the balance of the 10-day period and may start to drift higher during the last part of our 11-16 day forecast window.