Tomorrow scattered showers return to the state with a minor trough passage. We can see up to .25” of moisture over about 50% of the state, but otherwise we turn out partly sunny. There is a chance for a heavier thunderstorm in far SW Indiana, which would skew precipitation totals above .25” in isolated areas.
We turn out partly to mostly sunny, dry and warm from Friday through Sunday. Temps normal to above normal.
Monday, we have to watch for scattered showers from US 24 northward, but otherwise still look for partly to mostly sunny skies over the rest of the state. Even the northern third should see some sun when showers are not around.
The best chance of rain, both in terms of coverage and quantity comes overnight next Monday night through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms bring .25”-1.25” of moisture to 90% of the state. The map shows 10 day rain potential. For the extended period, we have scattered showers from overnight next Friday night through Saturday morning, bringing .1”-.5” rain potential and 60% coverage. This is a lower rain outlook than our previous forecasts.
We turn drier again for Saturday afternoon and next Sunday. The rest of the extended window has the potential to be wetter, and models went wetter in the past 24 hours. However, we are waiting to see what additional data says, considering how dry our atmospheric profile is at the time. We think the forecast models will revert to a drier solution again, and for now we are keeping our extended forecast unchanged: partly to mostly sunny skies, and temps normal to slightly above normal. But we are watching closely the period from the 19th through the 22nd to see if we need to make changes in the future.