No change in the short term forecast through next Tuesday. We have dry weather in for today, tomorrow and Sunday. Temps will be normal to above normal for daytime highs, but normal overnight (which is much cooler than we have become accustomed to recently). Sunshine will dominate through the period.
Monday we start to see good southwest winds develop. Most of the state will be precipitation-free, but we can see some scattered showers sneak into NW and northern Indiana on the fringe of better action across northern IL, WI, and MI. this will be with a warm front lifting through those areas. The rest of the state will see increasing clouds through the day ahead of our next cold front.
That cold front is in for Monday night and Tuesday. Rain totals look to remain in that .25”-.75” range with coverage bumped to 90% of the state. We actually think that all areas have a really good shot at seeing at least the lower end of the range. Winds will be very gusty Tuesday as the front moves through. We won’t rule out 20-40 mph sustained winds.
A few tweaks to the rest of the 10-day forecast this morning. Behind the front, we try to dry out, but we also see significantly colder air blasting into the region. This cold air comes on north winds, coming right across the great lakes region. We think now that we will see plenty of clouds is due to this lake enhancement, and we can’t even rule out some lake effect snow on Wednesday in northern Indiana and Michigan. This can also trigger some light scattered rain showers off and on for Wednesday farther south in Indiana. Moisture availability is not significant…only a few hundredths for the most part, but we can’t rule it out. Coverage will be 40-50% or less.
Clouds will stay part of the forecast through Thursday and Friday too as north winds continue, but they will not be as strong. We expect some sun, but not the bright, sunny set up that is expected here today and this weekend.
The extended period has an upper-level trough digging in over the eastern half to third of the country. This will keep temps on the defensive, mostly below normal through mid-month. IT also will mean we expect a pattern similar to the second half of next week right on through the 11-16 day forecast window. Our very pleasant finish to fall is about to become a little less pleasant as we move deeper into December.