We sneak through another day with no precipitation today. Clouds moved into parts of the state yesterday but were non-existent in others. Today we should see clouds build a bit more as we gear up for our late week and weekend rain event. Still, today will turn out decent for remaining harvest or field work that is out there.
Thick clouds and light precipitation start to nose into west central and SW Indiana this evening, and then continue to spread east through the rest of the overnight tonight and tomorrow. This will be the first, initial wave of this two-wave precipitation event. This batch of moisture produces generally .1”-.5” rain totals over 90% of the state. It should wind down in northern areas by mid-afternoon, and then rain settles into the southern half to third of the state. Wave #2 of moisture moves through tomorrow night through Saturday but will be limited to mostly areas south of I-70. There will more significant rains in this slug of moisture, and it can add another .25”-1” over the southern half of the state, while we see little to no additional moisture up north. So, for the combined system through Sunday morning, rain totals will be up to 1.5”, and the entire state gets at least a little wet. The map above shows rain totals through Sunday morning.
We turn dry in all areas from Sunday through next Wednesday. High pressure will be in control, with 2 high pressure centers sliding across the state in that period. Temps will not fall off that much, and we should stay near normal through midweek next week.
Moisture is back for the second half of next week, as scattered showers arrive Thursday morning. At this time, we are expecting .1”-.5” rain potential with coverage at 80% of the state. This system may skew a slight focus on the northern half of the state, but honestly, it’s a bit early to finesse the forecast that much. We will watch it. The low tracks across NW Indiana, and we will be in the warm (south flow) sector, keeping all precipitation rain. Action should be done by early next Friday morning. Dry but turning colder behind that system next Friday, which can lead to a chance of very light snow next Saturday, the 22nd. This will not be enough snow to really talk much about a white Christmas yet.
The extended period is relatively dry, especially through Christmas. Models are split on temps, but we think a move to colder air for the week of Christmas is likely, cold enough to support snow, if any moisture were to materialize. Right now, we are going to keep a dry pattern through most of the 11-16 day forecast window, with our only system in that period coming for Friday the 28th. A south flow ahead of the strong low would bring warm air in, enough to at least have the moisture start as rain, and we could see .25”-.75” of precipitation out of that event.