After a couple of nicer days, we have a little more moisture to deal with in the short term. Today, most of the state stays dry, but this afternoon we do see scattered showers trying to nose in over the far northern reaches of the state. We think that most action stays north of US 30, and we do not see any precipitation south of US 24. This scattered shower action will be associated with a strong low moving through the great lakes. Rain totals in the far north will be a few hundredths to no more than a tenth or two. The low has a nice cold front coming out of it, but that will not sweep through Indiana until tomorrow. As that front comes through. We look for .1”-.5” rains over 75% of the state. It should be a nice rain, but will not have much of a thunderstorm component at all, which is why we are backing our rain totals down just a bit.
Northern Indiana gets a brief dry spell early Friday, while lingering clouds and even some scattered showers hold over far southern parts of the state. This will be the leading edge of our next system staring to lift into the region as it exits the central plains. Rains will pick up in intensity late Friday and will be at their zenith through Saturday. We still may see lingering scattered showers over the state for Sunday. However, models cannot decide on a track for this system yet. Up to 2 days ago. The track was solid right across the state with moderate to heavy rains. 24 hours ago, all of a sudden, models kept the system well to the south…missing all of the state. Today, they are half-stepping it back into Indiana, with rains up to I-70 through Saturday. Make no mistake: we are not changing our forecast. With model flip flopping and no consensus being built to change our thoughts, we are going to continue to call for a wet weekend, with
rains of .25” to 1.5” over 80% of the state. WE will continue to monitor, and if models can start to agree on even a slightly different solution, we will tweak our forecast thoughts. But, for now, there is not enough there for us to make dramatic changes. You still have to count on a wet weekend, and we are fine if you want to sit there and hope (pray) we are wrong.
WE still have a nice, dry start of next week with no rain Monday through Thursday. Temps will be slightly cooler to start, but will warm nicely to above normal levels.
We do still have a strong system arriving the 28th and likely lingering through the 30th. WE are keeping rain potential from that system at .25”-1” with 80% coverage. Farther out in the extended period, a second front tries to exit the plains and upper Midwest for late the 3rd into the 4th, and it may have similar rain totals.