We started to see some warming over the state yesterday, especially over the southern half of the state. Strong southwest flow over the state today should push temps higher. In fact, we expect temps to be well above normal today through the weekend and into early next week. This all comes with mostly sunny skies and no rain. We may have to keep an eye out for a renegade shower or two over the southern half of the state Saturday, but really, we think chances are minor, and the best rains will stay south of the OH river.
The next system we have been touting continues to erode, and now stands to bring us next to nothing. We won’t completely remove moisture yet for next Tuesday into Wednesday, but coverage in our forecast drops to 40% and totals stay at a few hundredths to no more than a third of an inch. The best outbreak of scattered showers may actually push back into Wednesday morning.
Cloudy and slightly cooler conditions move in for the Thursday next week. With that kind of set up, we may have to allow for a few more scattered showers from time to time over the state, particularly the northern half of the state, just due to the fact that cooler air has trouble holding as much moisture, and we will have an atmosphere that is pretty heavy with moisture. Combine that with a warm front pushing north, and there is a recipe for a little bit of action. Still, we don’t look for a lot of rain potential. Rain totals will mostly be a few hundredths to a tenth or two spread out over the Thursday night Friday morning time frame, mostly from US 24 northward.
A stronger cold front sweeps through Friday night into Saturday. We look for some moderate to heavy rains as this front comes through, with rain totals of .25”-1” over 100% of the state. Timing will be important, as thunderstorms can develop with just the right set up. Behind the front, cooler air comes in again briefly.
In the extended period, we still have a nice storm complex coming in for the first into the 2nd. This likely brings all liquid on its current trajectory, and will lead to rains of .25”-1”. The recent trend of getting cooler for a day or two following a strong frontal passage will continue, with colder air in for the 3rd and 4th. However, there does not look to be any threat of that cool push holding any longer. Another strong low is developing in the central Rockies and plains around the end of the 16-day window, and means we likely see another good push of precipitation around the 7th and 8th, perhaps sooner.