High pressure is off to our south and east this morning. That means circulation around the high has turned to the south and southwest. Warmer air should start to build into the region today. Winds may be a little strong at times, averaging 12-25 mph across the state. However, temps should climb a good 15-20 degrees by this afternoon over yesterday. Tomorrow we add another 10 degrees. Sunshine should dominate all through today and tomorrow as well.
Clouds build tomorrow late afternoon and evening, and we see minor moisture lift into the state starting closer to midnight Saturday night. That shower action continues Sunday morning and lingers through mid to late afternoon. Moisture totals do not look to be as significant this morning as earlier this week. Right now we are scaling our moisture expectations back to 0.05” to .3” with coverage at 75%. By Sunday evening, most of the action is already gone.
Cooler high pressure follows that system in for the start of next week. Temps on Monday will be back to normal or a bit below, and we do not expect as quick of a rebound for Tuesday. The most recent models suggest a weak clipper like system sweeping through the great lakes Wednesday afternoon, and it may try to drag a little bit of rain and clouds down into the northern third of the state. However, this track is very much still up in the air, and for now we like a more northern solution, which would keep us dry at midweek. Dry weather would continue then for Thursday through Sunday, as no major frontal boundaries are likely to develop. Temps rise late in the week, with an upper level ridge in the plains trying to expand east.
The extended period has one system in it, and it looks like it has gobbled up our initial front we were looking for on the 20th. This stronger, separate low pressure circulation moves in for the 22nd and holds through the 23rd. Moisture looks more impressive this morning, and may be able to bring rain and thunderstorms with rain totals of half to 1.25”. cold air may try to rush in behind, but even if it does, the pattern looks similar to what we have seen from late Jan through Feb thus far…very short duration cold blasts in an otherwise warmer than normal pattern. Needless to say, with this forecast, we will not be hurting for moisture across the Hoosier state as we move toward the end of the month.