A very interesting forecast pattern has emerged for this upcoming period. We are going to be very wet for the next 4 days (today through Thursday), and then we may basically shut off all moisture for the rest of the 10 day period, and the 11-16 day window. This is a forecast pattern that, if it holds, will really cause some consternation in the marketplace.
Today we have showers and thunderstorms developing over the northern half of the state and working through. Tomorrow’s pattern looks similar. For Wednesday and Thursday, we have to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms over a more general coverage pattern of the state. Each day, where it rains, we can see rain totals of anywhere from .25”-1”. Combined, we see 1”-3” over about 80% of the state from today through Thursday. After the heavy rains from last Friday, this moisture this soon will not be welcome. Temperatures will be near normal, but strong warming is not likely with the moisture staying close by through the next 4 days. The map above shows combined rain potential through the next 4 days.
On Friday, we will find ourselves behind all frontal boundaries, and this will kick off a dry pattern. Our forecast is rain free for Friday through the weekend, and on through all of next week. AS warm air builds, we won’t completely rule out scattered heat based pop up thunderstorms, but those do not look to be a big part of the forecast equation, as we do not have a good moisture source to tap into. A large upper level high and developing upper-level ridge will begin to dominate.
Our only threat of a front arrives around the 22nd, with scattered light showers. The atmosphere will be very dry by that time, so this minor front likely does not have enough moisture and energy to do anything significant, but it has the potential for .1”-.5” spots of rain over about 70% of the state. Behind that front, high pressure reasserts itself and will be in control through the rest of the 16 day period.
This pattern also looks to hold through the end of the month…as we look upstream out to the west and north and see nothing coming that has any serious potential to break the ridge. This means we likely see hot and drier weather for a large part of the pollination of our late planted Hoosier corn crop this month.