A good chunk of the state may miss out on moisture today, but the extreme northern part of Indiana will probably not be so lucky. We have a strong system passing by to the north today over the great lakes, and some of that moisture is pushing down into northern Indiana. The biggest and heaviest rains are in MI this morning, but we have to keep an eye out for thunderstorms in Indiana, mostly north of US 30. Some of these storms can be strong. The good news is that everything should be gone by mid to late morning. But, we can see rain totals along and north of US 30 of .25”-1” or more, with strong and severe thunderstorm potential, and some localized flooding. The rest of the state stays dry today and we will get very, very warm through the day. Actual air temps may only make it to the upper 80s and low 90s (depending on where you are), but the humidity will make heat indexes move dramatically higher than that. Be aware. And we do not think thunderstorms cool us off any this afternoon.
Rain and thunderstorm action is back in the forecast for the overnight tonight and through the day tomorrow. Heavy rains are likely as we start the day tomorrow over northern Indiana, but rains can happen pretty much across the state through Thursday. Rain totals will be from .25”-1.5” with coverage at around 60% of the state. WE may see slightly better coverage than that, but call us pessimistic this morning. Thursday looks damp in many locations.
Dry weather is on the way for the rest of the period, however. Friday will be a transition in many areas, with lingering showers over extreme southeastern Indiana to start the day, clouds giving way to sun elsewhere. Then, high pressure takes full control for the weekend and holds through next week. Temps will climb and we see mostly rain free weather through the period. A warm front dragging through the state Monday morning may trigger a few pop up showers or thunderstorms in northeast parts of the state, but we do not feel the threat is strong enough to warrant a mention in our forecast this morning. We like the dry pattern through the week. AS heat builds, pop up heat based thunderstorms may become more of a storyline later in the week. Friday looks like it may be a day of interest in that regard, but again, there is nothing that looks significant across a large part of the state.
The extended window still hints at a weak front around the 22nd, with a few hundredths to no more than half an inch of rain over 60% of the state. Then we find ourselves back under the control of the upper level ridge through the remainder of the extended window, right on through the 28th. Now, models are suggesting there is a higher chance of moisture getting trapped under the ridge, coming off the gulf during the extended timeframe. That leads us to increase our chances of pop up thunderstorms in the extended forecast. But still, at this time, coverage looks hit and miss at best, and we would be best served to plan on a longer term dry push. If next week turns out as dry as we think…it may end up being more difficult to get pop up action going the following week, because the atmosphere will be fairly dry.