The next two days will be mostly dry across the state. However, we could see quite a spread in weather conditions, based on where a stationary/warm front sets up on each day. Yesterday, the front was draped across the northern third of the state, and north of the front, we stayed cloudy, foggy, and cooler while the southern two-thirds of the state was warmer, drier and sunnier. That front may linger in northern Indiana today, but we should see stronger south flow developing too, which would allow for clearing. Generally, if we see sunshine, we will see temps take off. That is what we expect over the next two days.
A few scattered showers may work in Tuesday evening through the overnight, but that will basically be a false start. Significant rains show up Wednesday midday as the strong cold front sweeps through. We still have a concern about strong to severe weather and are projecting moderate to heavy rains. At this point, we will keep rain totals at a half to 1.5” and see some local amounts closer to 2 inches where the strong to severe thunderstorms break out. Also, of note, this front will produce gusty winds, which will not be friendly to mature crops waiting to be harvested. The state will see 100% coverage on these rains. But, we are speeding the frontal passage up a bit, and look for all rains to be done by midnight Wednesday night. The map shows system rain totals through midnight Wednesday night.
Dry Thursday through early Friday. However, we see a minor wave of action tracking across the northern half of the corn belt for Friday midday and evening. Rain totals will be .15” or less over the northern half of the state. Coverage there will be 80%. Southern Indiana sees nothing.
The rest of the 10-day window dry with plenty of sunshine from next Saturday through the following Wednesday. In fact, we see that dryness go through the majority of the 11-16 day extended period too. There may be a slight bit of moisture at the end of the extended period, around the 23rd. Right now, it looks like a few hundredths to a tenth, mostly north. But things will change by the time we get there. Overall, though, that means once we get done with the rains at midweek this week, we should be able to see a fairly wide-open window for drying and eventually a return to harvest with no problems.
Temps will be warm the next 3 days, continuing a well above normal streak for the open of the month of October. But, we go back closer to normal behind the front for the balance of the week and should stay normal to slightly below normal for the rest of the period, on through the 23rd.