Our weather pattern remains dry for most of this week over most of the state. But, then we turn really active starting Thursday night and put together 3 waves in three days to finish the week and weekend. Then, we look to get into an alternating pattern of dry days followed by good precipitation. The chances of us seeing another extended dry window like we are in the midst of right now again before October are very slim. Here is how we see things breaking down.
Today we should be dry over about 95% of the state. However, the remains of Hurricane Florence are working northward and will bring rain to about 60% of Ohio. Clouds from that moisture may spin in over parts of Indiana, so we are looking at a mix of clouds and sun through the day. In far SE Indiana, we have to keep the door open for a few renegade showers shooting off from the OH and KY moisture. But, most of us will not see anything today. Temperatures remain warm.
Dry weather holds for tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday now. The front we had been watching last week for midweek on Wednesday has completely fallen apart down this way, and moisture looks to hold across WI, northern IL and into MI. But, even though we are taking moisture out at midweek, we are going to have to pay for it later. That payment comes due starting Thursday night.
Three waves of moisture will move over the state from Thursday night through Sunday, one for each day period. Rain kicks off Thursday night and goes through Friday evening, then another batch of moisture comes Saturday and a final batch Sunday. Combined, all three systems bring a potential for .25” to 1.5” rains over about 90% of the state. We think a few areas see all three waves, but most areas see at least two of the three hits over the 3-day period. This will bring a slowdown to harvest field work. The map at right shows rain totals through Sunday evening.
Dry weather is back for next Monday through Wednesday. Temps will be a bit cooler behind the weekend rains but will stay mostly near normal for the period. Then, we kick off the extended 11-16 day window with a strong front for next Thursday and Friday, the 27th and 28th. This front brings half to 1.5” inch rain potential to a full 100% of the state. This front also ushers in much cooler Canadian high pressure out of the west. We expect temps to move to below normal levels to finish out the extended period, while dry weather finishes out the month and kicks off October. For the 29th and 30th, we think it wise to be on the lookout for temps bottoming out near 40 degrees, and we won’t rule out a few upper 30s. There is plenty of time for that to change, though. Just putting it out there this morning.