Colder air moves into the state today, after a surprisingly nice Sunday weather set up yesterday. We were happy to see mild temps extend their stay a bit as we finished the weekend, but it does not change our thoughts on the setup today. Northwest flow off of Lake Michigan will combine with a minor clipper to trigger some clouds over the northern half of the state and we have to be on the lookout for some light snows as well. Most of the action stays north of I-70, and most of the potential snow accumulation will be from US 24 northward. Lake enhancement may trigger heavier snows in the far north, but generally, we don’t see anything more than a coating to an inch of the white stuff outside of lake effect areas. South of I-70, we likely just see clouds break for some sun.
Tomorrow, we are still chilly to start, but winds turn to the southwest on the backside of high pressure that will be moving away. This will begin to moderate temps somewhat, getting us back to slightly above normal levels. Winds become very strong for Wednesday, averaging 15-30 mph and that will take temps well above normal at midweek. This also will signal a strong front moving closer from the west.
That front arrives Thursday. Moisture actually begins closer to midnight Wednesday night over the northern third of the state, where we can see up to a quarter of an inch of liquid move in. Temps are warm enough that we likely see rain there. Then, through Thursday, action sags farther south and east, bringing .1”-.5” to the rest of the state. We still think that most of the moisture comes in with temps holding at 35 degrees or better, so we are leaning toward all rain at this time. Cold air still is blasting in behind the front, but with the heaviest moisture staying south into Kentucky, that means we probably do not have enough moisture lingering over the state when the cold air arrives to create any meaningful snow. We appear to dodge the bullet this time around.
Colder air is into finish the week on Friday, as high pressure moves across northern Indiana into northern Ohio. Temps stay cold through Saturday midday before southwest winds return and bump us back above freezing. Overnight Saturday night through Sunday we have a minor system moving through that brings a few hundredths to .3” of liquid equivalent precipitation through. Temps will be mostly from 31-36 degrees during that event, so it is conceivable that we see a mix of rain, sleet, and snow, depending on how the system wants to evolve. But, we do hold off on our next leg down in temperatures until after the moisture leave Sunday night.
Cold air for Monday fuels a clipper that brings some significant snow to Michigan. This snow can make it down to US 24 to start next week and may linger into Tuesday in those areas. However, the rest of the state stays dry Monday, and may end up with some rains or snow to start off Tuesday before the action moves farther off to the east and south. There is a lot of cold air pooling up in the Canadian prairies and it looks to break free for next week. This should come in for midweek and should take temps below normal, this time for more of an extended period. We are likely to see some subzero temps the second half of next week over central and northern Indiana.
The 11-16 day period shows several clippers on the move. One crosses the great lakes the 8th, another 11th, and a third for the 13th. All have a chance of bringing snow, and cold air will be the feature that really sets the tone for the pattern. It looks to be coming back with a vengeance.