No change in our nearby and macro thoughts this morning, but we are going to be making some timing adjustments and the result will be a longer dry window in-between systems, even as our pattern shifts colder.
No change in the thought process today. We have a front that will cross the state today, and it will bring rain. The moisture is a little slow in its arrival vs our forecast last week, but we will see rain totaling a few hundredths to .3” over 90% of the state today. On top of that, we will see very gusty winds, averaging 15-30 mph all day long out of the southwest…this will take temps up to above normal levels again, and ensure that we see all liquid precipitation here. The rain continues tomorrow, which is a forecast change, although the coverage will be dramatically lower than what we see today. Tomorrow we could see scattered showers bring an additional few hundredths to .25” over 40-50% of the state. That would take 2 day totals to up to half an inch, although those half inch numbers will be limited to a very small percentage of the state. The map above shows rain totals through tomorrow midnight.
Clouds will give way to sun on Wednesday, and we should turn colder with strong north winds at 10-20 mph. Then we stay dry and cool for Thursday and Friday. The threat of precipitation at the end of the week stays mostly south, prompting the change from our forecast late last week. The weekend is mostly dry too, but warmer, as south winds return. The change may trigger some clouds for Saturday, but nothing overly dramatic. High pressure settles in for next Monday with a colder push again, and we ride those dry coattails for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as well. Tuesday will stay cold, but Wednesday we see a final bump up in temps, ahead of our next system.
The extended period remains active. We see rain for Thursday and Friday of next week, bringing .25-1” of liquid potential. Currently, the moisture all looks to come in the form of rain, as cold air does not arrive until the weekend. But, that cold air arrival also triggers snow, with a combined action for Saturday and Sunday (19th and 20th) of several inches of snow. After a pause Monday morning (21st) we have more snow potential for Monday night through Tuesday the 22nd.
So, after our system today and tomorrow, we end up with nearly a week’s worth of dry weather, but then winter tries to come back with a vengeance. We continue to see a much colder second half of January, and snow potential ramps up too.