Moisture trying to move away to the south and east this morning as a frontal boundary moved through the state overnight. The best rains were in central and southern Indiana, as expected, and this morning the lingering moisture is mostly over east and southeast parts of the state. By midday, everything should be done across Indiana, and we turn out partly sunny. Sun will be around already this morning in northern and western areas. Still clouds will be a little pesky across the state into late afternoon and evening, before clearing. Temps today ease back just a bit from yesterday behind the front but will not stay in this zone long.
Mostly sunny dry and warm weather will be here for tomorrow and Saturday, with temps back to normal and above normal levels. On Sunday we are taking rain chances out in many areas, and now look at only a few potential spits and sprinkles in central Indiana for the Sunday midday and afternoon period. Coverage is down to 20% at best, and we the trend is such that we will not be surprised if action goes away completely before it gets here. The rest of the state will be partly sunny for Sunday.
Dry Monday and Tuesday as well with sunshine and a few clouds coming up from the south. Temps remain above normal. Monday sees some showers moving across the Great Lakes and MI to the north, but none of that action is threatening further south. Then, the forecast gets a little squirrelly. We continue to expect a named tropical system (“Barry”) to come ashore on the Gulf coast this weekend, with landfall in LA. The system then drifts north. There is still plenty of disagreement on models as to how far north Barry’s remains can come, but models are drifting slightly toward the GFS solution, which keeps rain of any significance down well south of the Ohio river. Right now we think at midweek we dodge the tropical moisture, and late I the week Thursday night into Friday, we cant rule out some hit and miss showers from a weak front coming out of the NW. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to .6” with coverage at 60%, and the best chances in central Indiana. The map shows rain potential through next Thursday morning.
We finish the 10 day window with a dry Saturday (20th), and dry start to Sunday. In the extended 11-16 day period, we remain mostly dry, with our only threat of action coming late, around the 25th, where we can see .2”-.6” over about 70% of the state.
Temps will be mostly above normal now through late July. We may drop back a little below normal behind each front we have (like today), but there are few fronts ready to move through here, so temps skew higher. The one thing to truly watch, for both temps and for overall weather pattern flow, will be this tropical system, and where its track takes it. Where the rain falls, it can be heavy, as the system’s remains will be very slow moving.