No change in the short term forecast as we expect sunny, dry weather statewide today and tomorrow. Humidity values dropped late yesterday, and we should be comfortable today before humidity starts to climb again tomorrow to kick off the weekend.
Sunday will be mostly dry too, but clouds will mix with sun. There is a small chance of hit and miss showers…more like sprinkles, across the state as a weak trough drags through, but coverage will be limited to 10-20% maximum. Really, Sunday likely turns out pretty good. Monday follows suit with partly to mostly sunny skies.
The remains of Barry continue to threaten for Tuesday. That is a little sooner now, and reflects a pickup of speed. That makes sense, because in order to get this far north, it is going to have to be moving faster. We will put in some shower action over the southern half of the state for Tuesday and a little lingering action Wednesday morning. Rain totals can be anywhere from a few hundredths to .6” with coverage at 60% of the area from I-70 southward. The northern half of the state may see some clouds from Barry, but right now we think precipitation will not be as big of a deal. Temps stay near to above normal.
Thursday as system arrives from the NW, bringing showers and thunderstorms to about 60% of the state. Rain totals can be from .1”-.75” with coverage at 70%. Northern areas again have the best potential of missing out on the moisture.
The rest of the week next week and the following weekend turn out partly sunny, warm and humid, but dry. We should make it from Friday the 19th through Sunday the 21st with little to no precipitation threat, although heat-based instability will need to be watched for thunderstorm development. The map above shows rain totals for the 10-day period. The bullseye around Indy is way over done! But remember, the rain totals, intensity and placement overall will be governed by the exact track of Barry’s remains, so this map may change dramatically by Monday morning…but our thoughts right now is that the heaviest rains stay south.
The extended period has a front bringing showers for Tuesday the 23rd, with rain totals from .1”-.6” across 80% of the state. This is a little sooner than our previous outlook and will need to be watched for timing changes. Thunderstorms could boost those totals if we see good development along the front. Otherwise, the rest of the extended 11-16 day forecast window has partly to mostly sunny skies and dry weather, continuing the current drier pattern and outlook.
Overall, this pattern is drier than normal, but it would only take a little bit more of a northern push, and a slowing of the remains of Barry to change that. Anytime you are dealing with tropical moisture, the line between good moisture and way too much moisture is very fine…so even though there are more and more areas in the state that “could use a rain”…be careful what you wish for if you are hoping for Barry to bring what you need! Temperatures remain normal to above normal for the entire 16-day period…as we have been hinting at over the past few days.