A mixed bag over the state today, as we start to feel some of the effects of Barry working in. Moisture potential increases through the day from the SW north and east, as these moisture bands swirl through the OH valley. The action continues overnight tonight and into tomorrow. Rain totals can be in a wide range from this event, from nearly nothing in some areas (particularly in the farther north areas of the state) to 1” or 1.5” in areas south of I-70. Rain coverage will be about 70% of the state. However, this moisture is coming faster, which means it may leave faster too…we think that we start to see partly sunny skies take over tomorrow from NW and western parts of the state on eastward. The lingering light moisture holds on the longest tomorrow in far SE counties.
Our intermediate forecast is drier now, with a mostly dry period from Thursday on through the weekend. There can be some clouds over the state Thursday which may trigger a shower or two, but generally, we are dry and warm for the period. Temperatures stay well above normal.
We also are drier early next week. A weak front does sag south and east across the region on Monday, but rain totals look significantly smaller this morning, from a few hundredths to .25” over 60% of the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday mid-morning, all rain should be south of the Ohio River. Behind that, we are dry for the balance of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The map shows 10-day rain totals, most of which comes in the next 48 hours.
The extended period can feature some pop up heat based thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday, but then we get a better organized system for Sunday the 28th and Monday the 29th over the region, with rain totals from .1”-.5” and coverage at 70%. The atmosphere may attempt to build in a little more of an active pattern to finish the 16 day forecast window, with additional showers and thunderstorms for the 30th and 31st, bringing rain totals combined at .5”-1.5” and coverage of 60%.