We continue to look for and hope for a drier pattern to emerge. However, mother nature continues to give head fakes and have trouble making up her mind. We have a few tweaks to the forecast this morning. There is not a lot of additional moisture in total, but there are chances over more days, and that may end up impacting the temps, more than anything.
Today we start off dry with sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase. We can’t rule out late afternoon or evening showers, mostly from I-70 north. Rain totals are not impressive, only a few hundredths to .25” and 60% coverage…but, there will be moisture around.
Tomorrow through Sunday we see rain chances in the forecast every day for areas north of I-70. Meanwhile, we turn out partly sunny Thursday through Saturday south of I-70. The only chance of rain in the period for southern Indiana will be on Sunday, when rains have 90% coverage statewide. Tomorrow we have showers producing a few hundredths to .3” over the northern half of the state with 90% coverage, Then Friday a few hundredths to .2” from I-70 north with 50% coverage. The Saturday showers can produce up to .15” of moisture with 50% coverage I-70 north, and then statewide rains run from .05”-.5” on Sunday, again that is 90% coverage. So, overall, we are not talking about huge moisture. But, to get rain, you have to have clouds, and if we have clouds, we don’t have sun, which limits the warming we can see each of the next few days over the northern half of the state. So, in a scenario where we need GDDs…we are making it more difficult by keeping even minor rains around.
Next week starts dry with Mostly sunny skies Monday and Tuesday to kick off July. Temps will be near normal or even a couple degrees above normal. However, excessive heat is not expected. On Wednesday clouds increase, we have showers moving up over southern and central parts of the state in the afternoon and evening, but that moisture waits to move into northern Indiana until closer to midnight. Moisture totals for Wednesday will be limited to a few hundredths to .3” Independence Day on Thursday is a little wetter this morning, with cloudy to partly sunny skies, and the chance of showers, bringing a few hundredths to half an inch over about 70% of the state. Everything is done by evening, though, and we still think that most fireworks festivities will be able to proceed. We finish the 10 day window with a sunny, dry day next Friday, the 5th. The map shows rain totals through the end of the 10 day period.
The extended 11-16 day forecast starts off with a few scattered showers for Saturday the 6th, mostly over southern Indiana, where we can see up to .25” and 50% coverage. There should not be anything more than a mix of clouds and sun up north. Sunday the 7th will be sunny, and then a few scattered showers return for Monday the 8th. They bring only a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but coverage will be 70% of the state. Back to dry weather for Tuesday through Thursday to finish the extended period.
So, to reiterate our thoughts inferred above. AT this point, we don’t think the forecast is about moisture at all. IF we get more rain…so what. We are just going to fill low areas that are already drowned out anyway. The moisture coming is not all that impressive, and we think that heavy rain will be limited to thunderstorms. Notice, there are not a lot of thunderstorms in our forecast at this time. The problem with the moisture in the forecast is that it comes with clouds, and clouds dim the sun, which keeps the warming we need bay. The crop needs heat units, and with even small chances and amounts of moisture in the forecast, we can pretty much guarantee that we will be disappointed with our accumulation of heat units. We are going to be focusing our thought more on temps going forward. Right now, all can really see in the next 10 days to 2 weeks are temps near normal. Long term warmth is just not there yet.