A better start to the week than what we saw yesterday. Low pressure managed to push farther north on its move to the east yesterday, and that brought the scattered rain showers and the wet snow flakes. Today we have a much drier flow of air into the region, and while we are not seeing a fast expansion of warm air, we should add a few degrees onto our high temps today and tomorrow. High pressure will be nearby as we start the week.
Wednesday brings a minor disturbance to the state, with plenty of clouds and a few scattered showers. We expect a few hundredths to .1” of precipitation with 60% coverage. This will be a relatively quick moving system.
Dry weather is back for the second half of the week. We see partly to mostly sunny skies Thursday through Saturday with warmer air pushing up from the south. We expect above normal temps to finish the week.
The pattern becomes more active and wet starting with the second half of the weekend. Clouds increase this coming Sunday, and we see scattered showers from I-70 northward. This will bring a few hundredths to .15” with 50% coverage north of I-70. Nothing happens in southern Indiana. This will just be a precursor to bigger rains to start next week. For Monday and Tuesday, we expect rains of .25”-1.25” with windy conditions and a chance of thunderstorms. The best rains will be in central and southern Indiana. Remember that, because we think that emerges into a pattern farther out in the extended period. We will be partly sunny and cooler to finish our 10 day period on Wednesday the 27th.
The extended period is very active and could feature excessive precipitation. From Thursday the 28th through Sunday the 31st, we have rain and thunderstorms coming in several waves. The heaviest action will be in central and southern Indiana (our hint from the paragraph above point here). Four day rain totals can be from 1 to 3 inches across 100% of the state, and if we have any concern at this point, it would be that it would not take much to exceed that 3 inch upper bound. But, we are not done there. After 2 dry days to start April on the 1st and 2nd, another front brings. 25”-1” rain potential for the 3rd. This outlook definitely has March going out like a lion. A wet, soggy, sloppy, irritable lion. The map at right shows one model’s rain totals for that period from the 28th through the 3rd. Right now we think the maximum totals are overdone…but as we mentioned above…our concern is that they could be right.