A drier forecast pattern continues to move into the region. We have one more cold day here today, with temps below normal, but we should see more sun, as high pressure moves across the state. As winds turn south on the backside of the high, we should see temps moderate a bit over the weekend, moving to normal levels and even slightly above as we move into next week. A strong storm complex is moving over the Deep South and Tennessee Valley tomorrow, and we won’t rule out some clouds sneaking into SW Indiana through the day. Those clouds can trigger a few spits and sprinkles, but that is the only part of the state where we see any threat. The rest of us are sunny and dry.
Warmer air is in for Monday with strong southwest flow, but we have a minor trough sweeping through overnight Monday night through Tuesday. This trough has no significant moisture associated with it. However, colder air coming in behind the trough will cause clouds to become more prevalent into Tuesday and we can’t rule out a few spits and sprinkles due to the fact that colder air cannot hold as much moisture as warm air. Coverage will be very minor, and in reality, we think we stay dry in many areas. We just are not able to guarantee a fully dry day. Dry air does hold for the balance of the week next week, right on through Friday.
Next Saturday, a cold front moves in from the west, and will bring .25”-.75” rain potential to about 70% of the state. We are calling this kind of coverage because we see some significant holes potentially developing in the moisture as the front slides through. The front moves through the entire state, but precipitation will have some hit and miss characteristics. This will be the first well-organized system in about 10 days, though, going back to what we saw earlier this week from Monday night through Wednesday.
In the extended period, another strong front around the 20th can bring rains of .5”-1.5” to 70% of the state. That system looks like it has a better track, better moisture availability and more strength than our front on the 17th, so we need to be on the lookout there. Still, by the 20th, we will mostly be below normal on cumulative march precipitation.