The forecast is less friendly this morning for parts of the state, as we are having to increase moisture potential. Here in the short term today, that less friendly outlook comes for northern Indiana. We cannot rule out showers through the day today from US 24 northward. South of there we see just a mix of clouds and sun. But from US 24 north, we can see anywhere from a few hundredths to .4” with coverage at 60%. This, along with cool air, will dramatically impact drying. Tomorrow we continue to watch as the offshoot moisture from a cold front to our west works in. We will keep scattered showers for Wednesday morning and midday over western and northern Indiana, but the action is falling apart as it arrives. That means the rest of the state should be able to see little to no action. In the west and north we can see from .1” to .7” with coverage at 70% of the regions, but the rest of the state looks more like 30% coverage of a few hundredths to no more than a tenth. We should see sunshine by afternoon on through sunset. Temps will be significantly warmer.
Thursday and Friday remain mostly dry, with a mix of clouds and sun Thursday and a full Mostly sunny day Friday. Temps will remain warm.
Unfortunately, the weekend looks more active. We had been looking for rain and thunderstorms on 1 day out of the 3 day holiday weekend…now we are raising that to 3 out of 3 days. Rain and thunderstorms will be in from I-70 north through the day Saturday triggering .25”-1” rain totals and coverage of 60%. Then for both Sunday and Memorial Day (Monday) we have additional showers. WE expect a few hundredths to half an inch of potential each of those days, with coverage at 70% on Sunday and 50% on Memorial Day. Not everyone gets moisture on each day, and there will be some holes, but generally, we think it is a pretty easy stretch to say that 80% of the state can see at least .25 to .75” rain totals or more for the holiday weekend combined. The map shows cumulative rain potential through Memorial Day next Monday. The bigger totals in NW Indiana are a result of getting moisture from pretty much every wave that tries to come into the state over the next 6 days, including the thunderstorms this holiday weekend.
We get a dry day for next Tuesday, the 28th, as our next system is pushing back just a bit. Scattered showers arrive Wednesday the 29th, mostly from I-70 north, but they look less intense. For now, we are pulling moisture back to .25” or less with coverage at 75%. Dry to finish the 10 day window and start the extended 11-16 day period next Thursday and Friday (30th & 31st).
Sun on the first will give way to clouds and we see rain arriving that night. That rain continues into June 2nd with combined moisture totals of .25”-1” and coverage at 80%. We are projecting 3 dry days behind that to finish the extended period for Monday the 3rd through Wednesday the 5th. There could be another system on the way for the 6th.